Tuesday, April 15, 2008

逆市雙雄

美股一挫,亞洲股市即震盪,以為台灣股市有馬總統照顧,早上還逆勢造好,可惜難敵大氣候,收市微微跌16點。不過,新興市場似乎有資金擁護,泰國、印度、巴基斯坦同孟加拉股市指數均報升收市,果然不能小覷這些市場,可能大家認為美國次按對這些國家影響不大,最重要看其內需是否夠強勁。

至於港股受外圍影響較深,再配合中美股市齊唱哀歌,恒指怎能保得住24,000點,最終更只能以接近全日最低位收市,報23,811點,下挫3.4%,而內地股市重挫,更加拖累國企股指數也狂瀉逾5%。

生意好好的中資金融股亦不能幸免於難,講明首季盈利大增1.4倍的招商銀行(3968),股價一日不見了4%至28.65元,工商銀行(1398)亦話首季盈利增50%以上,股價一樣挫5.8%至5.79元,莫非基本因素也不能提供支持?還是大家嫌賺得少,照沽可也!

當炒三通概念股,富邦銀行(636)再成焦點,買盤湧入,全日成交股數由近期每日過百萬股,一下子躍升至1,930.8萬股,股價怎會令人失望,單日抽上最高見6.78元,收市仍報6.75元,增幅高達18.2%,股價見新高。大戶開市半小時後才開始以10萬股計掃上去,未到11時已破6元,跟手有3宗大手買入各20萬股,實行拋過百萬元捧場,只見股價升不停,這些大戶即日平倉計數,收穫認真和味!

還有一間叫豐德麗(571)的公司股價也造好,可能炒明星概念,皆因在香港電影金像獎中,《投名狀》在13項提名中,奪得8個獎項,成功率達61.5%,而該套電影正好是豐德麗去年收歸旗下的寰亞所製作的。未知是否慶祝《投名狀》大獲全勝,豐德麗股價懶理外圍股市拖累港股,昨日逆市向上,收市報2.65元,升5仙,增幅也有1.9%,成交81萬股,有215萬元成交。

寰亞去年還推出了4齣電影,包括《每當變幻時》、《鐵三角》、《婚禮》和《集結號》,你估寰亞做了多少生意呢?以07年底計,全年營業額有8,408.8萬元,毛利1,583萬元,毛利率18.8%。

再望望整體電影製作及發行業務,營業額儘管大增3.8倍至9,872萬元,可惜依然虧損,只是蝕錢的金額由06年的3,829萬元,縮減至07年的2,818萬元而已,反映拍電影不一定有好回報,唯一好處是手上的電影版權帳面值進一步增至1.99億元,但若果不出售,始終是帳面數。

豐德麗可能食髓知味,更準備擴大該業務,實行增加製作電影數目、未來數年更要開拍多齣巨額製作電影,增加每年投資電影總額。不過,禤中怡想問句,除了日日有明星睇,小股東何時會見到業務再有盈利呢?

(4月15日刊於《am730》)

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