Friday, February 01, 2008

一月效應失靈

港股在今年首個月份的表現的確令人失望,恒指昨日收市報23,455點,較07年12月31日收市的27,812點,足足累積不見了4,357點,跌幅達15.6%。大家惟有寄望下月可收復失地。

至於美國股市卻未見顯著受挫,道瓊斯工業平均指數,對比去年12月31日收市報13,264點,以1月30日收市報12,442點計,累積跌822點,跌幅為6.1%。其實,美國有所謂「1月效應」(JANUARY EFFECT),因為該月份向以天氣差,大眾剛經歷大時大節等,投資氣氛非佳,但美國稅務法例規定,投資股票的損失可以用作扣減所得稅,大部分投資者會在年底前,大量沽售有帳面損失的股票來避稅,令年底時股市通常出現較大的跌勢,而在隔年的1月份,又買回去年底賣出的股票,使每年一月份的投資回報表現,出現高於其他月份的現象。

不過,美國次按問題惡化,信貸收縮的結果是流入股市的資金相應較少,即使之前沽出蝕錢的股份,可能也不輕易再入市。像一些受次按影響較微的股份為例,熱門股Google(按揭公司廣告減少,也算有點影響)於去年底股價才691.48美元,但直至1月30日,股價只有548.27美元,即累積不見了20.7%。

已發展國家表現差,新興市場亦不濟,即使中國市場的投資熱情也有冷卻跡象。像南韓資產管理組織的統計數字顯示,單是上周,即23至25日間,南韓的投資者從基金贖回合共達2,567億韓圜,當中主要被抽走資金的基金,多是投資中國及金磚四國市場的,當地分析員更估計資金從這類市場抽離的趨勢會持續,因為投資者可能認為這類市場已再沒有顯著大升市的因素值得憧憬。

這也難怪,據當地基金評級公司統計顯示,投資中國相關的基金一向受市場歡迎,佔出售海外基金的比重高達30%以上,可說是最好賣的投資產品。可惜的是,72隻投資中國股票的基金,自去年10月底以來,合共已錄得7.8萬億韓圜(約643億港元)虧損,足足不見了26.9%之多,難怪投資者會意興闌珊。

南韓投資者的錢要找出路,遂轉而打自己股市的主意,單是上周便有7,503億韓圜(約61.9億港元)投入南韓股票基金,原因很簡單,這是自己熟悉的股市,知道公司背景,自然得心應手。

所謂舉一反三,若這些資金也不看好中國股票,意味其他地區的資金也可能有相同看法,那麼支持H股的資金會否減弱呢?因為要投資中國的股票,無疑以香港這個資金流通最自由的地方為首選,屆時基金被贖回後,要這些外資回來再捧場就認真考功夫。

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