Friday, June 02, 2006

CSL的昔日與現在

近日,與一些曾經在大東電報工作過的朋友,談起CSL,這間在眾多香港電訊衍生出來的公司中,表現最好的一間電訊公司。好友以往都對CSL的表現引以為傲,但對Telstra全權掌控後的CSL,越來越不看好,理由有兩個:

1.忽然去收購新世界傳動網,但新世界傳動網又不像Sunday(866)有3G牌,加上新世界的網絡口碑以至客戶質素只是一般,收購的道理,認真令人摸不著頭腦。
2.香港現時DVB(Digital Video Broadcasting)網絡根本未落實,純粹只靠3G數據網絡傳送視像內容,這是又貴又無人buy的一套舊魔術。

在歐洲大陸,連我們的李超人之3都唔係太掂,要同當地電視台合作搞DVB-H打救,但近日CSL大力催谷所謂的3G電視,要達成甚麼目標真的想不通。

CSL的管理層骨幹,雖然不少都是大東年代出身,但大東年代的CSL懂得保護形象,可以憑優秀形象這種無形資產來達至高收費,但現在就有很大距離,這可能與CSL的大股東Telstra有關。
本來Telstra在澳洲祖家的地位,就有如在李澤楷未收購之前的香港電訊(Cable & Wireless HKT),壟斷香港固網市場一樣,所向無敵。挑戰Telstra的大東澳都斯(Cable & Wireless Optus),都尚未能動搖Telstra的地位,後來大東電報大轉型後,更將澳都斯賣了給新加坡電信(Singtel)。但近幾年,Telstra經營管理猶如魂遊太虛一樣,除了CSL的無厘頭收購和市場策略,當年和電盈(008)合資的恆通(Reach)至今仍未甩身,成績如何不用多說。而當地的電訊網絡升級,可以用一塌糊塗來形容,Telstra手上的CDMA網絡如何轉成3G至今仍是一個謎,放四十多億港元搞網絡升級,又是問題多多。

現時持有Telstra超過一半股權的澳洲政府,一向有打算盡沽手頭的Telstra股權,Telstra的股價前景如何真的估也估得到。好戲在後頭,下年就是澳洲大選,Telstra超過一半股權如何處置,將會成為很敏感的話題,由於政府持的貨太多,又想一次過將超過一半股權沽走,因此想放寬外資持股量限制,令外資成為大股東,不過很多澳洲人反對。看來要處理Telstra,真的無想像中容易,而這亦可視為CSL未來發展與興衰的關鍵因素。

陽光房託招股料受考驗

恒地(012)、恒發(097)與四叔私人將20多幢物業(或只是數個單位)注入陽光房地產基金(簡稱陽房),料集資38億元。陽房除了較優質的將軍澳新都城中心一期商場、上水中心購物商場、中環雲山大廈較優質的物業外,其餘的竟然有北角港逸軒住宅單位與廣告位等,更有鰂魚涌御皇臺電單車車位,物業類型比較多元化。

此外,不知四叔是否覺得將甲級商廈拿出來組REITs,可能會帶來跌穿招股價的風險吧(冠君產業(2778)以花旗銀行大廈的甲級物業招徠,最後以跌穿招股價收場),故只有轉為以乙級商廈小試牛刀。據了解,一般乙級商廈的回報率,普遍有6至8厘,近月來跌至3至4厘,只是過度炒作而已。因此在目前市場反覆情況下,可以等待陽房上市後,看定才購入亦不遲,相信日後在大市執平貨的機會多於買貴貨。

鴻運證券因為速動資金出現逾2,800萬元的短缺債,被證監會勒令停止交易。今次是否屬首次有證券行因這理由而爆煲?屬言之尚早,但對市場已出現了警號。現時中小型證券行,為了增加流動資金,或以孖展客戶的股票抵押與銀行借錢周轉,而近月股市大升,很多散戶均借孖展炒股、期指,甚至「篤手指」(即不放錢在戶口,靠T+2的機制炒兩天或即日鮮),故大市只跌1,500點,已出事。有市場知情人士告知,在鴻運證券被攝上鏡的負責人其實便是該行的老闆,「連老闆都親自上鏡,點會夾帶私逃關門?」故相信可能該行不太願意放大量現金作速動資金,被證監會發現而已。

有實貨股票的散戶朋友可以鬆一口氣,但孖展客戶就真是要「求神拜佛」,萬一股市在本周仍然大幅波動,被追孖展與補差價都會陸續有來。此事已使證監會加緊執行孖展轉按法規,並可能出現的提貨潮,中小型證券行的生存空間愈來愈少。

(29-05-06 刊於《am730》)

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