Thursday, May 18, 2006

滙豐控股的弱點

林少陽兄昨日表示禢中怡看扁滙豐控股(005),其實我並無此意,滙控是我心目中的最佳上市公司。不過,只是看到近日愛股股價莫名地、急速地飛升而感到意外罷了。

不過,就是頂尖高手,也有弱點,滙控雖然在眾多銀行業務中,皆有無懈可擊的表現,不過每當提到投資銀行業務(Investment Banking),好像就只能在亞洲區稍見成績。有投資銀行家好友笑言,多次滙控中人向他招手,但好友也拒絕盛情,並明言,與大摩、花旗、高盛等比較,滙控還有「很大進步空間」。

講起獅子銀行,外界盛讚的,還是其零售銀行業務,相信世界上都算首屈一指,在工商業務方面,成績都好好。但係,滙控在投資銀行業務(Investment Banking ),就唔夠花旗(Citigroup)、大摩(Morgan Stanley)、高盛(Goldman Sachs)等大行表現出眾。在亞洲區,仲有人知滙控識做投資銀行業務,但去到歐洲同北美,人哋會問你,乜HSBC唔係只做零售銀行的麼?

禢中怡唔會將滙控同大摩、高盛比,因為呢啲大行專注於Investment Banking,咁樣比較唔多公平,而業務上大家差唔多樣的花旗集團,就可能比較有參考價值,花旗過往掃晒Euromoney、The Asset Magazine雜誌的獎項,滙控呢瓣已經好難有得揮。

先講牌面,花旗銀行集團,在Investment Banking業務上做咗好多功夫,佢哋做Investment Banking有兩間公司,一間係掛Citigroup的大號,一間叫Smith Barney,而Smith Barney本身在九十年代又吞併了Salomon Brothers,這兩個名牌,都喺行內佔領導地位,換言之,花旗銀行明顯有品牌優勢,在講求名氣嘅投資銀行業界上,HSBC無疑是較為失色的,另一方面,滙控係一間傳統英式紳士文化主導的公司,一向都唔多沾手呢類業務,管理層個個都出身自一向講求穩陣的零售銀行業務,包括John Bond、Stephen K.Green、Keith Whitson 、William Purvas、David Eldon和Michael Samdberg等等,香港獲多利以前就叫有啲名,但真係收購一些比較有名的Investment Bank或Private Bank,近期都只係收購咗美國的Republic Bank,根本上,滙控的宗旨係求穩陣多於求大賺的公司。

如果想銳意發展investment banking 業務,一係就收購好的公司,一係就高薪挖角,滙控係有大把錢去挖角,聽聞行內風聲他們亦有向花旗、高盛、瑞銀等挖人走,問題係,滙控文化容納唔到有料到的investment banker。

2004年,HSBC高薪由法興(Societe Generale)挖嚟的Peter Lewis,搵佢做全球股票市場的主管,點知做得三個月,就傳出因斷背疑雲而請佢走,仲搞到Peter Lewis要告HSBC。在投資銀行界,三尖八角的人好多,滙控連斷背賓架都容唔落,點同花旗砌呀。照計HSBC擁有強大網絡,只要文化上唔好咁保守,係有得同花旗在投資銀行業務一較高下的,問題係如果文化照舊咁保守,我睇花旗銀行唔會當HSBC係威脅。

美軍的天文台

說是五月份進入南海最猛烈的颱風珍珠,終於都只是掠過香港,除咗多咗啲狂風大雨,未有造成太大的影響。但大家有否留意到每一次颱風打到嚟香港,天文台都要面對好大的壓力,點解?因為颱風走勢預測,同埋幾時打八號風球,已經係市民評定天文台可信度的指標。而睇番近幾年,市民似乎唔係好信天文台,好多人一打風就走入一位前天文台科學主任開的「香港地下天文台」的討論區,睇班業餘氣象迷的天氣預測,搞到次次打風期間都要只限會員進入,由此可見時下市民對天文台的信任度有幾高。

而除咗呢班固定地監察天文台的專業人士,現時世界各地的氣象機關都將預測同資料上網,隸屬美軍的聯合颱風預報中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,簡稱JTWC)仲會預報各地有可能發展成颱風的低氣壓,而佢哋每一次預報颱風動向,都會附有一份預報理由解說,講明由邊個、根據甚麼資料作出有關預報,就算有失誤,公眾都可以知點解。好多睇慣聯颱預報的人,一早已經準備晒牛皮膠紙,罐頭等等,唔會等個風打到嚟至同你慢慢傾。但香港天文台除咗路徑預報圖,真係好少學人哋聯颱咁,晨早提醒你颱風動向,或者在預報裡面提供埋理由,俾公眾有所判斷。

揀行業投資好過估大市上落

昨日港股再一次證明沒有人有水晶球。在一片看淡下,恒指反彈222點,收報16,616點。美元升勢只是曇花一現又再回落,無疑是對港股的強心針。

正所謂有智慧不如趁勢,選擇行業投資,實在是好過每日估大市上落。即使大市上升,你買的股票不一定升。現時焦點當然是金融業,中港亦然。中國的經濟增長強勁,但由於改革仍在進行中,金融業仍然存在不少問題。這亦是在一系列重組完成前,人民幣不可自由兌換的原因,三年相信是十分樂觀的估計。現時M2增長已連續幾個月遠高於人民銀行的全年預測,而且亦遠高於貸款增長。這產生了不少問題,例如經濟是否過熱及壞帳問題會否因日後加息亦急速轉壞(當然國內權威人士另有看法)。

有危亦必有機,這亦是股市好玩的地方。今日的焦點則是中銀(3398)上市,雖然上市價是2.5元至3元之間,大家亦明白實際上會以上限定價。以06年帳面值計,估值大約為2.1倍,參考交行(3328)以及建行(939)的定價約2.5倍,仍然有一定吸引力。不過,以質素計,仍然是交行以及建行為佳,這點可從股東回報率以及壞帳比率看到。但在這個大時代,上市價不太高已等於十分吸引,又有幾多個人會看完幾百頁的招股書才做決定?不少人又會問,中銀上市中銀香港(2388)的定位又會如何? 其實兩者的業務沒有重疊,子公司的吸引力亦不比母公司低。中銀有差不多三成資產是來自香港業務,所佔盈利比重亦不低。經過一系列的重組,中銀香港現時的表現其實不錯。股東回報率不低,息差亦有改善,成本對收入比率亦是行內最低的幾間之一。派息亦高,早前除淨後,現時的息率亦有5%以上。其股價對帳面值亦不過是2.1倍。

(18-05-06 刊於《am730》)

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