Thursday, May 18, 2006

超級市場合法老翻

褟中怡家中愛妻一向鍾愛超級市場的購物環境,貪其正貨、價平、無水貨等等優點,但日前愛妻竟矇查查買錯慣常食用的「Edo」餅乾,褟中怡只得苦笑,並佩服超市們的合法老翻「類似」產品手法。

褟中怡其後在兩大超市走一圈,發現他們均有生產與「Edo」產品十分類似的餅乾產品,更與「Edo」擺在一起。「Edo」是近來在香港崛起的潮流餅乾,製造商是韓國海太制果株式會社,港澳總代理為江戶貿易公司。有位做洋行嘅朋友同禢中怡講,依家一有餅乾、日用品之類的貨品,在兩大超級市場大賣,兩大超市集團就會用番本身品牌,推隻包裝差唔多嘅超級平價版。好似牛奶集團的First Choice,百佳的百佳牌,都係呢類牌子。另一方面,因為呢類超市自製品牌嘅貨品價錢通常較為便宜,變相對「正牌貨」亦造成壓力,超市身份由銷售商變成供應商,在商業分工位置上顯得模糊不清。

在英國、美國,有番咁上下市場佔有率的超級市場,都唔可以因自己有高嘅佔有率與及較靈通市場資訊,出埋同類型產品與自己的貨品供應商之貨品對壘,因呢種做法類近Microsoft利用佢在Windows的壟斷優勢,打沉Real、Netscape、Lotus呢類對手的招數,咁樣有可能觸犯這些國家的反壟斷法,公司隨時要放棄若干市場佔有率,或者被政府拆骨。

對於消費者而言,有平價貨作為第二選擇,應屬好事,但這樣的做法在商業道德上值得商榷,現今超市們已有不少針對供應商的「抽水」手法,如廣告贊助費、上架費等等,另一方面,當超市掌握了多類產品的銷量資料後,又推出自家品牌、明目張膽地大抄供應商們的產品與概念賺多一筆,這種合法老翻行為,如果在第三世界國家出現,還可推說是法制、經濟環境落後的side effect,但香港自詡是亞洲先進之都,竟然還有這種事情……。

更叫人擔心的,是供應商們的啞忍態度,如果消費渠道多元化的話,相信他們早已作出反擊,故此香港是否需要公平競爭法,根本不用多說!

高追低沽散戶通病

一般散戶最大的問題是見高追高,見低便沽貨,近兩日可能已有不少散戶因此而止蝕。對於是否應止蝕這個問題,其實不同人亦有不同看法,這主要考慮到的是風險問題。他們總喜歡高追一些升了不少的公司,股價在低位徘徊時他們反而不理會,這情況便好像之前的資源股以及工業股等。當靈寶(3330)升至8至9元時,不少基金加入將升勢火上加油,這時不少投機者才進場高追,當然風高浪急。另一個例子是宏利(945)。這間保險公司宣布變相拆細後,股價竟然大升10%,真是令人不明所以。宏利的增長潛力亦不是今日才看到,為何在宣布業績後才高價買入。

另外,公司在美國以及加拿大亦有上市,但當地的股價則遠低於香港。為何香港的投資者見股價大升才願意追入,亦不考慮買入美國以及加拿大的股份? 可以預期兩地的差價會繼續收窄,溢價必不可維持。

另外,最基本的錯誤是分不開股價與估值的分別。作為價值投資者,一間公司的股價基本上沒有意思,因為需要關心的只是其估值。宏利貴嗎?當然不貴,因為市盈率不過是15倍,而且過去多年的強勁增長已證明了集團值得較高估值。當然,即日鮮喜歡炒賣一些細價股(指股價),因走幾格已可搵到兩餐。不過,單看股價是沒有意思的,因為不少仙股可以一百合一,股價便變回1元。加上一些消息,便可二供十六,再大額配股集資,總之在令股東看不明白這單deal的同時,亦可達到集資的目標。當投機者失去信心,股價升「仙」時,這時便可再來五十合一,不斷循環再重複。

想賺錢,是需要做功課的。近期大量「少年股神」的出現,加上傳媒的吹噓,的確令人認為賺錢很容易。不過,市場上總有不少人願意替管理層買飛機租大屋。風高浪急,才是乘風破浪的好時機。說實話,沒人可準確預測高低位,因為市場總是不理性的。對不喜歡每日炒賣的投資者而言,趁這個時候累積好的公司才是致勝方法,因為一間公司的大方向以及管理層的能力才是決定其日後股價的關鍵。

(17-05-06 刊於《am730》)

16 Comments:

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褟生似乎唔多清楚美國超市. 係美國, 超市唔單只有老翻(當地稱之為house brand), 而且做得比香港更加明目張膽 - 老翻唔剩只包裝同原裝似同放埋一齊, 佢地更會寫到明話比原裝平幾多%.

冇做功課就冇資格評論, 褟生以此來支持公平競爭法, 未免貽笑大方.

 
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