Monday, May 08, 2006

滙控「我自求我道」

大笨象終於跳舞。大市由去年升到現在,表現最沉靜的亦應算是滙控(005),股價只是上升了大約6%,遠遠落後於由中移動(941)帶領的恒指。

以估值而言,這間世界第二大的銀行市盈率不足12倍,股價對帳面值只是2.1倍。更甚的是,滙控每股股息年年增加。因此雖然股價上升,但股息率仍然可以維持在相若水平。投資者可能終於發現其價值,加上美元已確認轉弱,即使聯儲局主席伯南克再糾正傳媒講法,亦不可改變這大趨勢。相對而言,其實亞洲的銀行股自年初以來的表現已不錯,經濟復甦銀行當然是主要受惠者,再加上併購活動的推動,令中小型銀行得到再評級。早前大眾金融以2.5倍帳面值購入亞洲商業銀行是例證之一,但令大家不明的是,為何一間資產淨值只有18億元的細銀行竟然可以比滙控還值錢? 其實估值較低一直是國際金融機構所面對的問題,最新一期《經濟學人》亦對這現象提出了一些看法。

投資銀行的收入中,不少是由於投資收入而來。因此,這行業的波動性便是投資者擔心的地方。好景時盈利當然可以三級跳,去年高盛2.4萬名員工平均收入竟然高達52萬美元,當中還包括不少秘書。但環境差時,公司當然不會留情。衍生工具佔投資銀行重的收入越高,其實風險便越大。當然,風險有多大則取決於公司的風險管理。

然而,滙控「我自求我道」,與這些投資銀行的發展策略大相逕庭,證券收入只佔總收入一部分,最重要還是傳統的個人以及企業借貸服務。從去年下半年的業績看到,美國的經濟以及壞帳並不如想像般差,英國的情況亦然,香港當然不用說。新興市場正在發展中,但整體而言則是未來的增長動力,市場日後必會給予其更高評級。諷刺的是,有人認為不少由投資銀行發行的ELN或認股證會減低正股的波幅,例如早前CSFB發行的巨型認股證便是一例。但從另一角度看,公司股價最終亦是盈利的寫照。當股價升穿位時,這些發行商往往需要高追補倉,令升勢火上加油,可以預期這便是未來滙控的走勢。

微軟重施故技打Google

Windows優勢真係曾經令唔少對手失敗,包括Netscape同埋Real。之後ICQ在AOL無心戀戰下,一樣輸俾MSN Messenger,在之前歷史陰影下,Google大把銀紙都好,都唔敢輕敵,Google已經向Microsoft提出抗議,指Microsoft晌度搞不公平競爭。

現時Microsoft在反壟斷官司度,同歐盟僵持不下,Microsoft有錢請勁的律師,Google一樣咁有錢,分分鐘抗議無效就走去入稟法院,要求法院用反壟斷法去處理,到時分分鐘仲要主動俾Google有位入Windows,到時真係煩到七彩。更不利Microsoft的是,依家共和黨政府睇個勢,最多做到08年,兩年後如果民主黨上場,而唔係由一向與Microsoft關係好的共和黨執政,真係幾頭痕。特別頭痕係,依家民主黨熱門的總統候選人,就係前總統克林頓之妻希拉莉。克林頓執政嗰陣,政府告Microsoft告到險些令該公司變成AT&T翻版,被拆骨成若干份。如果依家有藉口俾政府介入,分分鐘日後Microsoft就真係被人拆骨。橋唔怕舊,但呢次Bill Gates千萬不能輕敵,否則Google唔係用科技,而係用法律去做低你。

(03-05-06 刊於《am730》)

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