Tuesday, April 18, 2006

弱者企業家——王維基

城市電訊(CTI)(1137)王維基除咗以電訊魔鬼賣廣告外,仲成日扮成在競爭市場中的弱者。如果十年前城市電訊話自己係弱者,咁係啱嘅,對住英國大東(Cable & Wireless)呢個世界級巨無霸,邊個都係弱者。但時至今日,仲話自己係弱者,禢中怡覺得王維基只是博同情罷了。近年城市電訊之所以出現帳面虧損,是因為呢幾年係城市電訊入屋鋪線的高峰期,他們要向思科大量入貨買設備入屋,任何新設備都會帶嚟帳面上比較高的折舊,直接令城市電訊在帳面上蝕咗一筆。

在美國,擁有最後一里(Last Mile,意思為直接接駁至用戶家裡的線源網絡)的電訊公司,至可以在電訊市場生存壯大。在1984年,美國政府用反托辣斯法(Anti-trust Law),迫AT&T將旗下的固網業務,拆成7間大、兩間細的電話公司,其中嗰7間大的固網公司名為Baby Bell。叫得做Baby,看來未必能夠與擁有長途電話、流動通訊等多種業務的AT&T及MCI鬥,因為以前在美國,長途電話業務比較搵到錢,固網反而未必有肉食。

不過由於Baby Bell擁有與固網用戶接觸的唯一途徑,收入自然十分穩定。結果7間公司多年南征北討,由原本玩固網,搞搞吓連流動通訊,長途電話都玩埋,又有足夠現金周圍搞收購。在南部為根據地的Southwest Bell,策動一輪吞併之後,最近連AT&T都吞埋,仲保留番AT&T個金漆招牌,近排佢哋又打算收購埋在美國東南部獨據一方的Bell South(南方貝爾)。而大西洋貝爾(Bell Atlantics)在多年南征北討後,已經成為咗今天的Verizon,除咗在美國最富庶的東北部,包括紐約州,以至在夏威夷雄霸天下,仲擁有美國全國最大流動電話公司Verizon Wireless,而且仲吞埋擁有美國全國光纖線路的MCI,MCI亦即係之前搞到成身蟻的Worldcom。日後美國電訊業,都係Verizon同新AT&T兩雄爭霸,而兩大集團都是來自Baby Bell的。

依家香港電訊界,除了電訊盈科(008)鋪線鋪得最積極,另一個覆蓋率最好應該係城市電訊。九倉電訊同埋新世界電訊,仲要同電盈簽租線協議,租電盈入屋線到2011年。而和記的覆蓋率唔夠,搞到TVB的Sun TV最後都係要搵電盈入屋。但城市電訊,完全可以雄霸公屋市場,依家座座屋邨電梯大堂播嘅都係城市電訊提供的內容,而且他們仲一路開始逐幢逐幢私樓咁鋪線,所以日後能與電盈爭一日之長短者,城電也。

禢中怡認為,投資市場對固網的認知已從以往的無大發展空間轉變為鞏固而穩定的收入來源。相反3G技術在融入生活方面可能較市場預期困難,故固網的價值或未來的價值可能也是投資界需要再作思考的問題。

至於王維基,反過來可能變成城電發展的「絆腳石」。他如果永遠只是沉醉於以弱者形象對抗大財團的宣傳手法中,那只會令投資者感覺——「悶」無新意。記得城電當年一句廣告slogan「生有限 活無限」,顯示出王維基應該明白優秀的宣傳手法是多變、無限制,甚至天馬行空的。但他這種一成不變的「弱者式」宣傳手段能否令他與其公司能夠由entrepreneur變成enterprise呢?

在「芬佬」眼中,企業無論是營運與策略都需要因時制宜,一個企業無可能永遠只是「一條橋到尾」、或者one man band,越大、越長遠的投資,越講求專業管理團隊的共融與分工,但想起城電,永遠也只會令人想起愛打綠色領帶的王先生,其他呢,對不起,禢中怡真的想不到。

交易所水漲船高

有兩種方法可以擴充業務,本身增長是其一,另一個有效的方法便是收購合併。近期歐洲以及美國有不少收購合併活動,例如早前全球第二大體育用品公司Adidas收購Reebok便是一例。除了一般公司外,交易所亦需要透過收購合併壯大其規模。美國納斯達克(NAS-DAQ)雖然在一個月前放棄以每股9.5英鎊(約130港元)現金收購倫敦交易所的計劃,不過這間證券交易所剛剛宣布以每股11.75英鎊(約161港元)購入3,810萬股倫敦交易所的股票,約為14.99%,成為該交易所的最大股東。

與香港的地區性不同,倫敦是真正的世界金融中心,擁有308年歷史的倫敦交易所的交投亦因此十分國際化。非本土上市公司的交易量佔世界60%,是紐約交易所的3倍,這亦是納斯達克希望收購的原因。事實上,除了納斯達克外,不少機構如麥格理銀行(Macquarie Bank),以及德國證交所亦是希望收購倫敦交易所的買家,倫敦交易所現時有大約3,000間上市公司,倫交所去年的營業額以及經常性純利分別為2.6億英鎊以及6,330萬英鎊。以納斯達克的收購價計,即相等於50倍市盈率。資產淨值為2.51億英鎊,接近12倍帳面值。無論從哪個角度看,收購亦不屬便宜。不過,納斯達克本身亦不便宜,市盈率接近74倍,帳面值更為股價的22倍。如果預期股市向好,交易所無疑是股市的晴雨表。

不過,收購初期納斯達克亦不一定可以受惠。如果全以借貸作融資,這便會增加納斯達克本身已不低的負債。05年納斯達克的現金只有1.7億美元,證券價值1.8億美元,不過長期債項則高達11.8億美元。以5%利息成本計,單單利息支出已達3,900萬美元,為其05年純利6,100萬美元的三分之二。這個策略性部署是否有其他考慮呢? 不過,這最少亦可解釋為何港交所(388) 近期的股價急升。除了預期成交額將遠高於05年外,環球的交易所根本亦水漲船高。

有趣圖片︰禢中怡趁復活節到澳門充電,行到當地著名買舊貨的關前地街,竟然見到一個路牌「爛鬼樓巷」,有老澳門人同我講,真係有一幢無人打理的「爛鬼樓」,所以街名由此而來,以後要買樓除了留意樓宇質素外,都要留意街名,以免被人笑到面黃!

(18-04-06 刊於《am730》)

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