Wednesday, June 28, 2006

人棄我取的股市方略

目前宏調下,新股上市無不紛紛轉軚延遲上市甚至擱置上市計劃,但世茂房地產(813)幾經辛苦才能湊夠「飛」,公開配售嚴重不足的情況下,餘額由國際配售補上,令貨源歸邊,不論上市表現如何,還需看保薦人高盛和摩根士丹利的功力。褟中怡希望世茂房地產不會撻Q吧?

另一方面,浙江最大房地產公司綠城中國將宣布以市盈率6倍至9倍上市,以每股6.57至9.86元招股,市盈率6至9倍,資產折讓更高達45%,綠城務求希望本港散戶高抬貴手,入飛小注支持一吓。該公司已完成28個物業項目,涉及總樓面面積約200萬平方米,其中11個項目已於今年3月底悉售。目前正發展及規劃的項目多達83個, 估計涉及總樓面面積約860萬平方米,涉及額外土地及建築成本高達233.61億元人民幣,所需資金自然有部分靠上市集資所得(以招股上限計,可籌得逾32億元),其餘資金來源包括現有營運現金流及向外借貸支付等。保薦人名氣亦不弱,就是摩根大通和瑞銀。

但是有散戶微言,若公司以特價上市,一定出現問題,或招股氣氛差所致。不過,據聞浙江省的房地產企業,由於發展過急,需要大量借貸,在受到宏調影響下,水源盡斷,令他們已支持不住。故急於以大折讓,特價上市集資,不僅可以解決水源問題,必要時又可以向股東伸手,集資收購不能上市的垂危房地產公司。有基金經理笑言,有些公司若然無法上市,欠「新錢」流入的話,分分鐘財政緊絀。試問市況旺盛時,你可以用單數位PE的價錢,購買同一質素的公司嗎?相信答案是否定的。價值投資者是時候出動了,人棄我取方是投資戰略,而兩家大型房地產股在危難期上市,還靠摩根家族的護價力量了。

記得世茂領導人許榮茂曾經講過,今時今日做內地房地產不容易,皆因為每個項目投入的資金相對較高(政府規定投入資金佔項目35%所需),即每100萬元要從銀包掏35萬元出來,其餘方可向外舉債,試問股東資金怎能少呢?另外,現時港股的氣氛不算太淡,國企已升破阻力位,成交亦漸回復至200億元以上。早前市場害怕美國可能一次過加息半厘,令氣氛偏淡,但本周四加息後一切明朗化,加上世界盃將完結,金融界的注目將重新留意股市。

另外,中國正憂慮經濟發展過急,從另一個角度想,國企盈利仍能高速增長,但市盈率平均僅13至15倍卻出奇地偏低,故應趁現時逢低吸納,迎接下一個升浪。


掟咗幾多錢去鹹水海?

在互聯網剛剛興起嘅時候,幾多大公司投資咗好多錢,在一些好似Novell、Lotus(依家的IBM)、微軟的所謂群組軟件科技上。這些軟件宣稱,可以提高群組生產力,成個團隊可以分享文件,交換資訊等等,吹噓幾咁好。不過,好多時,呢類軟件用法十分繁複,結果大家最常用的分享資訊方法,係用電郵同埋Windows的網路裡的芳鄰,開一個Share folder就算數,那些用了好多金錢買來的麻煩軟件,掂都無人敢掂。

不過,更令人無奈的是,依家好多大公司,包括IBM在內,都發現周街都download到的開放源碼軟件,可能為公司帶來更大生產力。依家Big 4之一的Ernst and Young已經在美國總公司做緊實驗,睇下免費的Wiki、blog等等,能唔能夠分享資訊之餘,提升效率。如果呢招有效的話,咁日後在公司與同事分享資料,就好似玩blog咁容易,你話幾咁好呢。

依家開blog的軟件,包括Linux、MySQL、WordPress等等都係開放源碼,除了MySQL要俾錢買,(查實唔使錢,就算做Wiki的Mediawiki一樣係唔使錢就可以下載),如果呢個趨勢係咁發展落去,咁點解大公司要俾咁多錢微軟、Oracle那些公司?而那些努力不懈的IT人,無無謂謂咁花大筆錢去考乜乜SE證書的果效又是甚麼呢?究竟呢幾年,各大小公司用了幾多錢於一些無用的IT大白象,認真值得深究一下。

不過禢中怡更加想審計署,搵日得閒審計吓港府究竟買乜軟件。如果政府好多資訊分享可以用剛才所講的免費軟件搞掂,一年可以為納稅人慳幾多錢,應該有數得計,所浪費的錢分分鐘多過香港電台班高層搞春茗。審計署長要確保政府每分每毫都用得其所,好應該搵專家幫忙就呢方面作出審計,等我們交稅唔好交得咁肉赤。

(6月28日刊於《am730》)

10 Comments:

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其實用software 都是計TOC的,而software的售價只估TOC 很小部份; 更大部份的之後的 support - 人人都知凡software 都有 bug, 有 bug 就要有 support. Freeware 的 support 不是沒有, 不過要及時就很難. 一些 critical use 的 application down 左卻沒有及時的 support, 試問政府等大機關怎肯用?

 
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