Monday, June 12, 2006

求求Spammer饒過我們

對於不少研究港股、美股、以至國際市場的中環好友們,平日收Spammer寄來的垃圾電郵,用來推銷偉哥之類的藥物,已經覺得好厭惡。不過,近日有一種Spammer,簡直可稱之為中環金融區敵人,如果無辦法早日根治,簡直會阻礙金融市場的有效運作。

呢批Spammer,主要不是向你推銷偉哥,亦不是推銷假錶,而是推銷股票!這些不請自來的Spammer,會寫一些似是而非的分析報告,當然Spammer的目標,並不是真的推介某隻好股票,而是騙財。

中環的賓架好友們,當然不會因這些電郵而上當被騙,問題是,當這些電郵越來越多,而投資銀行本身,只有作用極為有限的公司防垃圾電郵系統、或者客戶的防止垃圾電郵系統太死板蠢鈍時,就會搞到很多本來很重要,正經的研究報告、向客戶提出的建議等等,全部被擋住,客戶收不到,或者投資銀行根本不能把重要資訊正常發放。

反而,Spammer們明顯地是看準了過濾系統的弱點,利用大改字眼和電郵地址的招數乘虛而入,結果照樣對中環的賓架構成滋擾。而這些來自俄國和中國的垃圾電郵,對中環帶來的困擾越來越嚴重。如果不早日阻止這類垃圾電郵,恐怕各公司要重新起用fax機這種古老科技,向客戶傳遞重要資訊了。

其實Spammer搞到大公司運作大亂,已不是第一次,以前Spammer愛用美資大公司的domain來濫發電郵,禢中怡在美資行做緊嗰陣,有一陣子,發甚麼電郵朋友都收不到,因為過濾系統當公司發出的電郵通通係垃圾,你話不管制垃圾電郵,會造成多大經濟損失呢!

當然,Spammer們神通廣大,怎樣立法管制都好,他們始終有本身搞得垃圾滿天飛的能力。我有壓力,Spammer都有壓力,何苦要搞到中環友無飯開。Spammer們,饒過我們吧,你要推銷假東西,不要找到我們來,拜託。

Creative四面楚歌

以前俗語有話「生不入官門」,官司可免則免。雖然在現今商業社會,有時因商業利益而對簿公堂是無可避免。不過,打官司之前,最好先衡量一下到底對手有幾多彈藥先好落手,否則好像新加坡Creative咁狼狽就慘。

話說Creative覺得iPod用戶介面好似佢部MP3機專利介面Zen,於是便狀告蘋果電腦侵犯專利權,結果美國法院判Creative勝訴,本來佔市場老二地位的Creative想乘機分蘋果一筆。

雖然蘋果有的是錢,不過就唔益Creative,相反,在上月和本月,入稟兩次告Creative違反多項專利,加上蘋果本身又就較早前與Creative的官司上訴。結果,現時Creative要留下大筆資金,用來準備與蘋果電腦打官司。有些人擔心,Creative咁打官司,隨時打到破產都未擊敗蘋果。

更慘是,未能夠用法律手段擊敗蘋果,新敵人已經上場。本身做開Walkman的Sony,在旗下佔百分之五十的聯營公司Sony Ericsson的手機上,大玩MP3概念,想透過手機來奪回Sony在手提音樂的寶座。之後,Nokia又蠢蠢欲動,想在手機與MP3結合的市場佔一席位。本來Creative的資本已經唔夠雄厚,現在要留錢打官司之餘,還要面對Sony Ericsson和Nokia這兩個絕不好惹的對手。試問Creative又何來研發實力,去維持現有的地位。

Creative的故事教訓一般中小企,如果你手上的錢唔夠多的話,就唔好同錢多到使唔晒的大財團鬥氣。如果我是Creative的股東,一定想快快同蘋果達成和解算數,免得夜長夢多,或者索性被蘋果電腦收購算了,反正Creative的核心業務之一:專業音效,Steve Jobs可能有興趣。

不過,如果Creative堅持打官司下去,在納斯達克入咗Creative的老友,應該考慮盡快沽走這間公司的股票,這種不自量力的董事局實在令人不大放心。

半導體股要識揀

經過周四急挫後,恒指上周五終於反彈179點。成交雖然不及上周四,不過仍然有333億元。現時恒指已跌至250日線附近,再大幅下調空間有限,實際上全世界的經濟增長理想,仍然看不到有股災的機會。因此,對於好的公司亦不妨繼續持有,甚至可以加碼。不過,世界盃既然已開始,焦點難免會放在究竟巴西可以輕易取勝還是科特迪瓦會爆個大冷。

新股的熱潮現時已慢慢減退。從這個角度看,短線指數看來仍然不會有很大的刺激。銀河半導體(527)上星期五掛牌,收報0.89元,較招股價每股0.86元上升3.49%,之前每逢上市便例升幾十巴仙的情況已不復見。

當然,公司本身的基本質素亦很重要。名字是半導體,但公司本身所製造的則主要是供應電子產品所需之二極管設備,客戶包括電視機及數碼影音光碟機製造商等等。這類產品,所需要含量較低,因此價格壓力很大。加上成本波動,毛利率便從04年的31.7%減少至只有26.1%。因此,只以較低的9倍市盈率上市,亦不是沒有道理。

另一間打正旗號以半導體公司上市的中芯(981),則不知是否選正在最佳時間上市,可以博大霧高價集資。其實公司一直需要不少資金擴充,因此上市亦是合理的選擇。當年公司以高價2.69元上市,集資138億元。即使當年中芯可以取得1億美元純利,市盈率亦達59倍。更何況公司於05年已轉盈為虧。樂觀估計,07年(06年相信仍然會虧損)的純利有機會重返1億美元,但以現價1.05元計這亦代表25倍市盈率。

至於在這行業上的龍頭,以及早前指中芯侵權的台積電,原來市盈率不過是12倍。最近台股急挫,令一批龍頭企業的估值變得吸引。看好台股的話,台積電或亦不失為一個好選擇。如果連技術較高的台積電的吸引力還較大,中芯的股價便相當昂貴。難怪公司正考慮三至五年內向當地政府購入武漢及成都廠房,而武漢廠房投產後在兩三年內的12吋晶圓的產能將達每月2.5萬片。雖然公司在中國市場的佔有率不低,但估值始終是投資者最關心的地方,不然股東亦不會在上市時便急急減持。

(12-06-06刊於《am730》)

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