Wednesday, June 21, 2006

屁股指揮腦袋

看過幾篇有關國泰航空(293)收購港龍和對中航興業(1110)、中國國航(753)及中信泰富(267)影響的分析報道,普遍評價都是很正面。褟中怡同意部分財經分析員的分析,香港飛機工程(044)應是最受惠國內航空業發展,又不受油價高低或航機票價高低影響的公司,一如《信報》孔少林提到,港機應可達致「公我贏、字你輸」的局面,瑞銀和JP摩根亦分別將一年目標價定於100元正。

市場瞬息萬變,當國台辦在6月14日宣布中國及台灣會在四個節日(清明、端午、中秋、春節)有包機直航,市場的「反射神經」立即反應,以為會令飛機升降香港國際機場的機會減少,加上投資者「幻想」將快達致直航,所以港機在香港的機庫生意也會受到負面影響,加上當天全球股市調整,港機竟大幅調整至低於國泰等公司停牌前的價格,將先前的大好消息完全拋諸腦後!簡直是屁股指揮腦袋!

投資者的反射神經實在太快,可能已忘記港機工程的附屬公司廈門太古飛機工程有限公司,其實基地正處於廈門,共有四個機庫(正在建第五個);而香港只有一個機庫(正在建第二個)。再者廈門其實是最接近台灣的機場。如果將來真的有直航,來往香港的台灣客機可能稍減,但升降廈門的飛機肯定大增。台胞們的祖籍在廈門附近絕對不少。今年春節來往內地和台灣的包機,中國的起飛點除上海、北京和廣州等一線城市外,就只有廈門一個!

歷史告訴我們,如果兩地一旦有直航,基於其他航點的「網絡效應」,總航班量應是上升而非下降。再者,年報亦已清楚說明,廈門太古好所持飛機工程將繼續於北京、上海提供外勤維修業務,在廣東白雲機場又差不多要簽署備忘錄興建三個機庫。如果真的有直航或者包機周末化和常態化,總航班數量肯定大升。

看過上述客觀事實後,你認為如果包機增加或是中台直航,港機的生意應是增加還是減少呢?褟中怡絕對不敢以專業投資者的身份自居,但在資訊爆棚的投資界,希望各位投資者不要盲目相信報紙評論(包括鄙人),清醒的頭腦比一切都重要。

求你,把我們的內容周圍傳

有時候,禢中怡真係覺得唱片公司係一種既遲鈍又矛盾的動物。以前卡拉OK播放唱片公司的音樂錄像時,唱片公司就要收費,最後唱片公司更變成要與卡拉OK合作搞「獨家試唱」。依家呢種故事,又重演,而呢一次,在網上世界重現。

以往博客或者一些Fans網站將偶像的音樂或錄像發放,實會收到唱片公司的律師信,搞到Fans同唱片公司之間的關係好僵。不過,自從新力(Sony)搵咗個鬼佬做CEO後,似乎風水輪流轉,依家新力推廣緊一種叫musicbox的服務。在呢種服務下,Fans可以合法地,連接唱片公司的網站,由唱片公司提供偶像的音樂錄像俾你睇,兼且肯定合法,唔會有海關入你間屋拉人封艇,或者收律師信云云。

當然,唱片公司數口咁精,絕對不會做蝕本生意,肯將音樂內容俾大家睇咁大方,首先,你想播邊首歌唔到博客或Fans決定,主導權完全由唱片公司話事,有些死硬fans可能未必好鍾意。另一方面,新力查實係借緊你個博客來賣廣告,否則新力點會咁好死提供免費內容呢。現階段用家同新力係無分紅協議的,不過,如果遲下其他公司都進軍呢種業務,咁好可能唱片公司會主動同Fans分紅,實行有錢齊齊搵,做Fans做到有錢收,都應該幾盞。

新力條橋證明了,如果娛樂界中人肯動下腦筋,迎接新時代,實會有搵錢門路。好似fans博客同網站,依家唱片公司都要同佢哋合作。現時就話海關見人BT就要又拉又鎖,好似好大件事咁。但可能幾年後,唱片公司要貼錢同古惑天皇合作都唔奇,世界輪流轉,乜都可能發生。

禢中怡勸娛樂界中人,唔好認定BT友對創作市場有害無益,佢哋隨時會變成娛樂界的米飯班主也唔奇。另一方面,Sony今次嘅舉動,其實亦富有其領導性及革命性,再一次向行家說明,“I am a leader!Right!”

(6月21日刊於《am730》)

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