Monday, February 24, 2014

數字遊戲

玩數字永遠叫人不亦樂乎,長遠房屋策略督導委員會倡未來10年建47萬伙,公私營以六比四方式發展,計一計,即私樓佔18.8萬伙,年供應1.88萬伙,但政府不是說,每年有兩萬伙私樓供應的嗎?那麼每年相差的1,200伙是怎樣解決?若果政府「承諾」說了算,那麼長策會份報告豈不是叫政府減少供應私樓單位數目?
又是運房局範疇的海底隧道問題,一年前,立法會文件披露,海底隧道(「紅隧」)每日車流量約12萬架次,遠超過其每日7.8萬架次的設計容量。相信有使用紅隧的也知道「塞爆」,偏偏政府卻話,車流量見25年新低,又話減少3,000架次,可惜車流量仍超出負荷能力,更重要的是,根本欠缺繁忙時段流量數字,若以全日計算,是否平均每小時5,000架次衡量,看似問題不大,但車流量真的是平均分配?
巴基斯坦NED大學完成一項為期兩年的研究,根據統計,估計交通擠塞令該國國民生產總值損失高達1.5%之多,那麼香港因紅隧擠塞而帶來的經濟損失又有多少,顧問報告有否提及,甚至曾作計算呢?
至於港交所(388)的盈利預告的通告也是高深莫測,大同集團(544)的通告題目為「盈利警告」,望清楚,去年預期的確會蝕錢,但其實虧損幅度將較2012年為少,真不知是正面還是負面。
另外,如單看爪哇控股(251)的盈利警告標題,以為純利下跌,但細心看一看,原來是投資物業重估盈餘的增幅較2012年為少所致,即純利(bottom line)看似減少,但收益及營業溢利在未計物業公平值變動前,其實將有所增長,即受非現金部分的帳面數所影響,在經營層面上實質有進步,或可視為假盈警是也。原來,佳華百貨(602)去年也欠缺如2012年錄得投資物業重估貢獻,令整體盈利下降,故要看核心利潤或較實際。
當然,錢賺多了,提早讓股東知道實屬好事,所以近期有不少「正面盈利預告」,但看到亞太資源(1104)那條標題:「正面盈利預警」,實在摸不著頭腦,若果是多賺了,為何要「警告」?如純利倒退,亦不會用「正面」,恐怕大家日後要看詳情方明白,原來該集團稱,中期溢利將大幅增長,主因靠聯營公司溢利增加,及撥回先前就兩間上市聯營公司帳面值所計提的減值虧損。
本周多隻大藍籌將派發成績表,可惜未見有正面盈利預告,相信升幅在五成以下,但或許看看派息金額會否慷慨一點,多少反映對業務前景的信心。至於財爺那份,早已不抱冀望了。

(2月24日刊於《am730》)

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