Monday, February 17, 2014

短命藍籌

本來僅得一名運動員參加的運動會,理應難吸引注目,但單是「隊醫」便熱鬧起來,看到那些「高層」的解畫,例如黃金寶也無隊醫等,更是令人吃驚,希望呂品韜不要氣餒,而那些「高層」再也不要傷害運動員的心了。
所謂「上樑不正下樑歪」,可惜港協暨奧委會會長霍先生卻好像不知所終,從未現身解畫,的確令人憂慮,本港運動事業是否真的難以發展?常常聽人說,皆因香港地方細等等,卻又有能力接待大量旅客,認真矛盾,但無論如何,即使只能有一個運動員參賽,也應鼓勵之。
除了運動員外,企業也要力爭上游,而上市公司除了業績佳之外,能夠躋身成為指數的成分股自是另一重要目標。
上周恒生指數有限公司公布季度檢討,中煤能源(1898)一如預期,被踢出恒指成分股組合內,相反,市場一直揣測的澳博控股(880)、永利澳門(1128)未有入圍,或避免太多濠賭股,反而蒙牛乳業(2319)成為「藍色乳牛」!為去年聯想集團(992)重新加入恒指後的另一爆冷決定。
有趣的是,中煤能源於2010年9月初才「染藍」,料不到短短3年半時間便結束藍籌生涯,與中國鋁業(2600)於08年6月晉身新貴,直至去年3月初,即接近5年後才被剔出比較,更為短命。
以上周五計,中煤能源市值僅162.5億元,以一年前收市價8.25元的338.7億元市值比較,足足不見了52%!無他,該集團去年中期純利經已大跌37.8%,今年初更發盈警,預期去年全年純利更大挫55%至65%之多,當然歸咎煤炭價格不斷下滑等影響。
近年恒指成分股數目不斷膨脹,如於2011年加入4隻,2012年添2隻,2013年也再增加2隻,當然有些被剔除,但更新速度也快,能夠染藍還有很多技術因素如市值排名等,而少於24個月的更要考慮其財政狀況等。
不過,過去有些藍籌公司業績的確嚇怕人,此外,企業管治和透明度等對股東有利的因素似乎也無法成為考量標準,像於2012年12月染藍的昆侖能源(135),該股於上周五市值1,083億元,雖然已較一年前回落16%,但比中遠太平洋(1199)的305億元仍大得多,奈何昆侖能源董事長李華林於去年8月辭職及委任溫青山擔任執行董事後,溫青山又迅速於去年底辭職,高層連番變動,可惜股東所知的依然不多。
上周五,該集團更表明,哈薩克貨幣堅戈貶值19%,而由於當地業務佔稅前溢利約一成,將對其收益構成影響,究竟在經營上能夠支持業績增長?值得留意。
做藍籌股確不易,希望「藍色乳牛」能夠證明自己並非爆冷之選。

(2月17日刊於《am730》)

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