Wednesday, August 22, 2012

紓困有錢賺


倫奧剛落幕,大家以為失去焦點,估不到又上演港人釣魚台登島壯舉,為中、日和港締造三贏方案,日本行使執法權、中國用民間反日,以及特區政府讓漁船放行,為特首形象加分,皆大歡喜!

不過,亞洲區內多個國家之間就領土紛爭確令人不安,中日、日韓、日俄,中菲均有爭拗,希望和平解決,絕不要兵戎相見。

能夠埋下釣魚島這個計時炸彈的,非禿鷹國莫屬,當年聲稱將釣島交日本管理,令中日引發爭論,形成一個長期無法平衡的狀態,中國忙於處理國內事務,自然無暇與美國抗衡吧!

其實,美國將問題推向全球的手法熟口熟面,例如不足兩個月,08年金融海嘯便經已席捲世界4年了,即使現在,像日本311大地震引發海嘯湧至美洲般,影響依然未有消除。

且看歐洲多國仍然飽受雷曼兄弟倒閉引致債務危機的困擾,始終未能擺脫問題,兼且有惡化跡象,或許歐洲諸國自身債台高築也要受罰,但有誰估到,現在最大得益者,竟然是掀起這場風暴的禿鷹國!

在金融業中,特別多簡寫,QE、PE、PB外,還記得TARP嗎?不是陷阱(TRAP),其實是美國財政部因應金融海嘯,而於08年10月成立的特別計劃,即Troubled Asset Relief Program(問題資產緩解計劃),就是動用大筆資金,救助國內不同金融機構等,相信還記得美國國際集團(AIG)、花旗集團(Citigroup)等也受過其恩惠,避免跟隨雷曼兄弟般,走向倒閉絕路。

當時人心惶惶,但財政部長蓋特納等金融團隊像特區政府當年入市打大鱷般,左又買,右又買,總之要避免讓問題惡化,而今日暫時做個小結,美國納稅人竟然有賺,兼且是大賺!

該計劃合共投入多達2,450億美元(約1.9萬億港元),而隨著市況好轉,他們已陸續減持手上投資組合,藉此套回現金,連同最近一口氣賣走AIG部分股份,便可套回高達57.5億美元(約448億港元),而財政部加聯儲局過去投入該集團的金額達1,820億美元(約1.4萬億港元),即使所持投資雖仍有約242億美元(約1,887億港元),但計一計,過去出售AIG股份所獲現金,經已相等於合共投入該公司的87%之多!

連同其他投資套現,TARP共套回現金總額經已高達2,650億美元(約2.06萬億港元),即不但全部回本,兼且淨賺多達200億美元(約1,560億港元),回報達8%,但還未計及尚餘的投資。若果悉數套現後,每分每毫都是利潤了,反映最終的回報相信會更加可觀,試問在這場金融海嘯中,到底誰才是真正的大贏家?

(8月22日刊於《am730》)

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