Wednesday, July 25, 2012

真假盈警


一場颶風讓大家早點回家,韋森特(Vicente)這個由美國提供的男性名字,突然轉向吹襲,威力驚人,幸好港人平安度過,實在要感恩。

面對汽車保險在颱風8號或以上期間不受保,的士和小巴司機繼續服務市民,亦應感謝,可惜部分索取天價,確令人有發災難財之感,如灣仔回梨木樹,叫價600元,認真恐怖,不過,有些的士司機仍按錶收費,簡直是暴雨中的陽光。

港鐵(066)東鐵線故障,實屬不幸,朋友放工在凌晨被困大圍站,未發怨言,畢竟天有不測之風雲,怎也料不到這個「美男」猛烈轉吹過來,意外實難預料,只是港鐵處理意外的能力似乎未盡完善,畢竟是集體運輸工具,不能收了錢便算。

有人趕返家,相反,從電視見到那些「追風者」跑上街,不怕生死,才最令人擔心。

香港的天災確實比鄰近地區為少,大家的危機意識可能只針對在股市方面,好像市場憧憬「七翻生」,可惜再炒歐債危機,內地經濟增長放緩,恒生指數昨日更失守19,000點,以收報18,903點計,本月至今累積下降2.7%,而國企股指數更累挫3.7%,難怪近期成交未改善,皆因炒甚麼也不容易有斬獲。

即使炒細價股也難搵食,且要小心乾升後營造利好環境,如1月才以配售形式上市的創業板股份宏創高科(8242),股價昨日在半日市中急升達11.8%,至1.13元,但望望成交額,盛惠3,000元,代表用少少資金便可推高股價,若果只見股價異動便衝入,分分鐘被綁。

最有趣的是,該股上市只有半年,便發第一個中期業績盈利警告,更會錄重大虧損,因為要為上市開支入帳等,總之上市前藍圖如何宏大,掛牌後業績走樣之快,場面相當恐怖,甚至想問問港交所(388)大員,是否真的急於批准新股上市,追趕全球第一?大家真的要留意,不要盲目追入,以免難以逃生。

近來盈警股像疫症般蔓延,公司多以整體市道不景、產品價格下降或銷售放緩等成為合理原因,有些甚至連內地經濟增長放緩,歐債危機惡化這些宏觀因素也不放過,總之要讓股東明瞭,自己業績差,實屬跟大隊走。

不過,有些股份往往借盈警來掩飾投資損失,如金融資產帳面值下降,或為證券投資撥備,往往可能與經營本業無關,這些損失對公司往往構成重大影響。

見到長城汽車(2333)中期盈利升30%,至逾23億元人民幣,反映能否在逆市中做出成績,才是真正考驗經營能力,不應純粹歸咎大環境。

(7月25日刊於《am730》)

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