Wednesday, June 20, 2012

把關比闖關重要


港交所(388)走去英國,買倫敦金屬交易所(LME),一拋約166億元,但LME去年純利僅9,200萬元,收購市盈率達180倍,認真嚇人,即要用180年時間,才收回投資。當然,港交所解畫,LME經營模式會不同,並調高費用,如用新收費計,去年可賺2.8億元,比原本大增2.1倍!市盈率更急降至59倍,如果年輕人今日買港交所股份,變耆英時,該股可收回投資了。

故事要動聽才會吸引,港交所自然話,收購可加強商品元素,又有增長前景,總之買得開心,令你放心,可惜又放下一句:「預期收購事項完成後第三年起可提升港交所盈利作貢獻」,意味這3年不要存期望。

儘管收購較自行發展的速度會較快,兼且有助內地發展海外商品市場的「政治味道」,但過去未見港交所就發展商品市場有大動作,獨沽一味望人民幣,莫非見到今年新股市場可能難保全球集資額第一,才轉走新路?

香港不少公司拓展海外時,除了和記黃埔(013)較成功外,多以失敗告終,如德昌電機(179)、偉易達(303)、TCL(1070),甚至是滙豐控股(005)也在美國輸得很慘烈。禤中怡當然祝願這宗跨國收購成功,成為一宗漂亮的交易。

除了拓展海外,監管上市公司的工作始終不容忽視,且看去年12月13日掛牌的豪特保健(6880),去年盈利大幅走樣,急挫58.9%,至僅餘1,524萬元,正正是發出盈利預警時所作預測下限金額,自然無法符合招股時的5,080萬元盈利預測了。

該公司自然歸咎市場競爭和客戶訂單推遲等例牌因素,面對新股未能達致招股書內的盈利預測部分,現行是否有處罰機制呢?而保薦人交銀國際又是否需打手板呢?

若果沒有這類機制,對新上市公司產生阻嚇作用,變相只需披露便可過關,或者用今日最喜歡用的方法:「先通過,後檢討。」代表買入該股的股東,只有自求多福了。

豪特保健業績嚇怕人,股東和投資者還需注意,若果只看業績第18頁的股息派送,末期息和特別股息竟分別達1.43仙和3.57仙,共達5仙而歡喜時,請再看清楚,其實末期股息實質只有0.95仙,而有特別股息亦只是1.43仙,共2.38仙而已,每手2,000股盛惠47.6元,得啖笑,主席葉治成等則可袋約495萬元股息了。

該集團解釋是手民之誤,禤中怡也覺得並非故意,但請港交所開心去買心頭好時,還請做好核心部分,如果新股質素日益轉壞,只管闖關,開疆闢土,未能好好把關,最終只會兩邊不討好,苦了香港人。

(6月20日刊於《am730》)

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