Wednesday, April 18, 2012

外資輪證商不好過

上周才話私募基金撲水離場,像番薯梁(梁伯韜)坐陣的CVC Capital減持新秀麗(1910)股份套現,準備再向非上市項目埋手之際,他竟轉頭便出手購入電訊魔童王維基做主席的城市電訊(1137)旗下電訊業務,作價50億元,若果單刁成事,總算為當年收購電訊盈科(008)失望而回後,再進軍本地電訊業的安慰獎。

單計城電去年8月底固網話音和寬頻客戶逾106萬名,即每名客戶作價仍逾4,700元,較擁有流動通訊業務的香港電訊(6823)每名客戶市值約6,811元為低,加上如用槓桿收購,即借錢支付代價的話,番薯梁可能出少少便可擁有穩定現金流項目,日後更可能具備分拆上市的機會,即使出售予友好也說不定。

電訊市場熱鬧,證券市場也忙,因為海通證券(6837)又再招股,但據出席推介會的證券界好友話,管理層已明示或暗示,未來經已不能再依靠幫客做證券買賣,賺取佣金做主要收入來源了。

其實,本地證券商也走向兩極,一是像耀才證券(1428)般鬥平,或者轉型做美資證券商般參與包銷、投資銀行等商業模式,否則難以靠證券買賣佣金立足,難怪朋友也想急流勇退,另覓新發展。

可惜,外資行也不好過,蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)早前已開刀,收到話Marketing部門成重災區之一,如果再望望其衍生產品部門就更慘烈,在市場交投的窩輪只剩34隻,而牛熊證更一隻也欠奉,也未見其再發行新產品,距離最遠的一隻認購輪於12月28日便到期,未來何去何從?

再看看20間衍生產品發行商情況,基本上有多達7間沒有牛熊證在市場買賣,有兩間亦只有單位數而已。在窩輪市場方面,德銀更只有8隻認購輪在市場掛牌,而窩輪數量少於100隻的發行商亦佔6間,包括比聯和巴銀等歐資行,可見要生存也不易。

其實,首季窩輪和牛熊證成交額佔大市比重已較去年第四季回落5.6個百分點,至25.8%,而日均成交額更下跌12.7%,新發行牛熊證數量也降8.2%,幸好窩輪數量升23.7%,可見生意額由多間大行瓜分後,獲利空間有限。

當然,市況未見顯著波動,亦可能是影響投資者意欲,證券界朋友則慨歎,以往用刀仔鋸大樹的風光日子不再,一隻窩輪打入十大成交榜的時光也難復見,估計與細魚(散戶)被食得七七八八有關。更慘烈的是,今時今日更聽聞有大型發行商互相對撼情況,見你的輪證條款好便出擊,總之市場已變成大魚博弈,散戶還是小心為上。

(4月18日刊於《am730》)

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