Wednesday, March 21, 2012

新股盈利走樣問誰

這是一個紛亂的時代,你放棄保密,指着他大爆醜聞,他卻堅決否認,面對這種場面,若果子女問道誰對誰錯,未知大家怎樣回答。

新股市場則出現公司招股時所設盈利預測,竟然於上市不足半年後,便告之無法達標,請問又找誰問呢?

於去年12月13日才上市的豪特保健(6880)已話,曾預測去年純利5,080萬元,但可能無法達標,公司解釋例湯例水,中國零售店數目增加,但收入低於預期,聖誕節及春節產品需求低於預期,及受歐洲及美國債務危機導致市況及營商環境惡化,企業及國際客戶推遲部分銷售訂單、香港市場競爭加劇,需降低產品零售價,引致毛利率下降;及加大廣告及宣傳活動所致。

當然,上市時歐美市場危機有多惡化,相信你知我知,其實,禤中怡曾指:「該股2012年度首五個月純利只有1,144萬元,卻能在餘下7個月間賺近4,000萬元,以符合招股預測,果然厲害。」

豈知該股中期純利僅1,259萬元,要追回盈利預測的金額肯定吃力,當初要設這個盈利預測數字,大家計一計,便有10倍市盈率,莫非純粹為自己招股價值設立參考價值?但今時今日這個市盈率恐難作準了,股價昨下跌5.7%,至0.65元,與招股定價1.58元計,足足蒸發了58%的市值。

盈利倒退總有藉口,但望望豪特保健的對手OSIM,於去年底第四季純利仍然微增0.7%,而去年全年純利更上升37.9%,難道對方不受大氣候影響?

其實,不計創業板公司轉往主板及介紹形式掛牌,在去年便有68間公司在主板上市,可惜粗略統計,竟然有多達16間公司盈利失色,佔新上市公司比重達23.5%,當中有4間發盈利警告,除豪特保健外,還有去年1月底上市的中慧國際(1143)、6月初登場的正業國際(3363)和10月底上市的豐臨國際(1152),認真恐怖。

至於盈利表現倒退的包括中國罕王(3788)、凱德商用產業(6813)、金寶寶(1239)、龍翔(935)、唐宮(1181)和雙樺控股(1241)等,儘管有些公司上市前沒有盈利預測,但若果只想利用上市集資,但業績走樣,最終會失去投資者的信心。

此外,未知豪特保健今次業績脫腳,該股與作為其獨家保薦人的交銀國際是否需負責呢?現時又是否有懲罰機制呢?若果盈利未達標,是否屬誤導小股東,可有追究機制呢?相信港交所(388)需研究,上市公司管理層和保薦人需承擔的責任,否則一上市便算過關,公司懶理股東利益,恐怕影響上市公司質素!

(3月21日刊於《am730》)

11 Comments:

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