Wednesday, July 18, 2012

台灣司機看經濟


同父母一行人往台灣觀光,最理想當然是附駕租車,即安排司機駕駛,又宜蘭又陽明山,交通安排妥當,避開猛烈太陽和炎夏,估不到的還可藉此了解當地的民情。

同司機陳先生談起當地經濟,佢話人口有2,300萬人,可惜有900萬人往海外中,不少常居於內地,反映消費人數減少,內需自然被削弱,未來發展更令人擔心,但進軍內地也不一定成功,他的父親早於80年代往開放後的中國投資,可惜失去50萬美元(約390萬港元),以當時幣值來說實非小數目,自己最終於05年結束父親創辦的紡織事業,兼職揸車。

談到台灣的安老安排,他話年滿65歲人士可每月收約12,000元新台幣,即約3,100港元,佢仍嫌不夠,禤中怡望望我們的生果金雖有望加至2,200元,比對方還少,兼且要左查右審,認真悲哀。

香港的重建近年加快,相反台北市處處有舊樓,司機一邊揸車一邊指並非怕地震而不建高樓,因一幢幢都是「釘子戶」,好像參觀睇樓團,而未能重建原因可能是業主開天殺價,收樓法定程序亦漫長,以十年計屬等閒,故部分物業樓齡更逾50年!變相成保育最佳工具,難怪他話連香港的李嘉誠也不會來這裡發展地產啦!不過,台灣也有其優勢,如科技和旅遊業等,禤中怡認為實不用妄自菲薄。

好像大家看淡美國經濟之際,《經濟學人》幫手唱好禿鷹國,封面更以《美國經濟再崛起》為題,所持理據包括美國家庭及金融機構的負債迅速下降、出口規模不斷擴大,並且在使用新能源方面走在前列位置。

2000年,美國家庭負債為收入的100%,到了2007年,該數字更擴大至 133%。經過金融海嘯的洗禮,國民資產狀況改善,令目前家庭負債僅為收入的114%。至於美國貿易逆差從2006年佔GDP的6%下降到今天的4%,部分除了受惠於美元續走弱,令新興市場消費力增強外,更重要原因是像波音、蘋果等高附加值產品輸出海外增多所致,似乎為奧巴馬爭取連任總統做助選般。

且看美國企業近期盈利表現對辦,如可口可樂、強生季度盈利屬預期,即使高盛純利下跌,也屬預期內。初步看,這些企業份成績表起碼比本港上市公司排隊出盈利警告為佳。若果經濟真的有好轉趨勢,按道理美國聯儲局也不用推第三輪量化寬鬆(QE3)措施了。

記得中國電信(728)董事長王曉初曾多次被追問何時推出新iPhone,當正式供應新iPhone時,證券商又擔心其補貼金額龐大而影響業績。若將這種矛盾場面主角轉換為聯儲局主席伯南克,並改為會否出QE3,大家又有何想法?

(7月18日刊於《am730》)

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