Wednesday, July 04, 2012

內房等活水


本來可享受一天假期,偏偏要在街上冒汗,並要體驗兩極表現。上周六,乘車從東區走廊往筲箕灣之際,只見隔鄰的東行線空空如也,莫非假期前夕,大家尚未出門,轉眼卻一隊長長車龍,包括警車等開路,在空蕩蕩的高速公路上飛過。回望一見,非我們的國家主席莫屬,難為了在太古城外被截住的車龍,只能呆等,為的是避免大家接近車隊。

周日上街,警方卻沒有大開方便之門,儘管人數多,即使大家在維園內等待,依舊擠塞不堪,如非大家「走出」一條又一條馬路,恐怕5個小時也無法行完,唯一安慰是,政府安排煙花節目,慶祝大家行完一條路。

政治環境惡劣,經濟又怎樣發展呢?未來15年,香港可以怎樣走呢?以往靠金融市場,可以魚翅撈飯,但且看今日大市成交額,情況相當可悲。

在資本市場方面,同投資賓架朋友談起,佢話上半年多個範疇確實淡靜,例如企業併購交易不如以往,而可換股債券市場更是一池死水,不過,債券市場則似乎不俗,且看Dealogic統計,上半年不計日本,亞太區債市集資4,555億美元(約3.55萬億港元)新高,比去年同期更升19%,算是逆市奇葩。

除了歐資銀行收水外,投資賓架朋友話,無他,好像金管局叫銀行貸款小心,各銀行自然聽話,令大企業轉投債市,貪其息率相對較低外,年期較長,減省再融資工夫,所以上半年藍籌地產股外,連未上市的南豐也加入抽水行列。

他更話,其實市場都有幾單銀團貸款商討中,甚至還有債券正在「製作中」,可惜一是叫價可能還未有共識,而另一個就是技術問題。

他解釋,有一項所謂「135-day rule」,即企業如欲將債券賣往美國,假設使用去年12月底的業績作參考的話,只能於業績後135天內進行,方可有效,即限期為約5月中旬,故企業需把握時機。

投資賓架朋友指,內房股若要伸手,恐怕要待公布中期業績後,並在10月中旬前發債,但聽聞近期叫價,即年息往往索17至18厘,要成事也不易。面對這種技術問題,難怪綠城中國(3900)要搵九龍倉(004)幫手,而盛高置地(337)選擇賣地給恒大地產(3333) 套現還債了。

不過,他仍對內房股有信心,因為這類股份冇錢時,便選擇由去年下半年起不買地,甚至放慢建築工程進度,省回買地資金在手,當市場活水又再湧現時,才再出手買地。近期多間內房股出手買地,莫非已預期有新鮮錢入袋?

(7月4日刊於《am730》)

7 Comments:

At 3:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

房地產股票相比房地產投資風險較大,因為股票會隨著股市波動。
在美國紐約,房地產投資回報率可觀且穩定,可降低投資者投資風險。

David Yung
http://www.castle-avenue.com/

 
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