Wednesday, October 26, 2011

廠佬搬得去邊?

全球天災不斷,土耳其發生大地震,泰國爆水災,禤中怡與大家齊為災民禱告,祝願平安。

一場水災,令泰國主打的汽車、電腦硬碟和食品業出口大受打擊,最悲的可算是汽車業,特別是日本汽車品牌如豐田和日產等,剛從311中逐步恢復元氣,又要飽受另一場災難,絕對考驗管理層的危機處理能力。

至於本港上市公司陸續要報憂,像做硬盤驅動器部件生產的國際精密(929)上周已話當地廠房要停產,股價昨日無升跌,收0.56元,但公布壞消息至今已累跌12.5%了。

至於生產硬碟機控制器的奕達國際(2662),其廠房更氾濫成災,要疏散員工,損失更難評估。而依利安達(1151)亦要停止當地生產,由於該地業務佔營業額貢獻比重約11%,影響不能算少,難怪股價昨日逆市回落1.3%,至22.6元。

此外,生產內衣的黛麗斯(333)為應付內地漸失低成本優勢,而加強投資泰國,目前於鄰近緬甸的湄索(Maesot)設廠,佔該集團總產量40%,如果出現問題,如何交付訂單便有困難了。但究竟是否受影響還是未知之數,皆因該集團未有主動公布,若果平安無事,不妨主動披露,讓股東多一分放心。該股升1.2%,至0.405元,惟成交僅11萬元,乾升也。

除了工業股,相信還會留意其他可能遭殃的股份,其中一間恐怕是亞洲金融(662)。這間金融機構自從出售本港銀行業務後,主要持有中港兩地、甚至柬埔寨的保險業務,還投資泰國市場,包括擁有當地上市的醫療服務公司康民國際股權,而康民持有醫院等資產。

由於外國人往泰國醫療或身體檢查等相當普遍,對當地經濟提供不少貢獻,但面對這場水災,恐怕流失不少客戶往其他地方,如近鄰的新加坡和馬來西亞。

同上市公司董事朋友談起,原來他也正籌劃進軍泰國市場做生產基地,原因同黛麗斯可謂如出一轍,內地成本高也!朋友解釋,今天於廣東省租廠設生產線,單在惠州,用月薪1,800至2,000元人民幣招請工人也有困難,當中還未計社保等雜項費用!分分鐘每人盛惠2,500至3,000元人民幣。

他更憂慮這種趨勢持續下去,未來5年單計月薪每名工人已需耗4,500至5,000元人民幣,還要加食住及加班費等。可惜內陸地區配套少,交通運輸成本非輕,對他們這些非生產高端產品的營商環境不利,只好向外闖。

朋友考察泰國和越南後,發現前者的薪酬在過去10年基本升不超過7%,比祖國可算是偏低水平,而最低工資才1,100至1,200港元,成本相對較低,加上政治環境趨穩定,故具有一定投資吸引力。

不過,當他看著那幅水汪汪的場面,會否重新考慮這個跨國投資大計,如果放棄這個國家,究竟又可以搬去那裡繼續發展,莫非揀香港將軍澳工業邨?

(10月26日刊於《am730》)

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