Wednesday, September 21, 2011

瑞銀花紅隨時凍過水

近期熱門話題自是免費報紙大戰,上周五分別有兩批朋友主動談論《am730》老闆施永青指,周五無法出版超過64頁的文章,可見其受關注程度。禤中怡也認為,若果一種商品能夠與消費者或用家分享自己的資訊,就像朋友互相了解般,能夠建立關係,甚至一份感情,有助業務發展,就像安排小朋友參觀連鎖快餐店的廚房,下次光顧時也加添親切感。

但對瑞銀(UBS)員工來說,可能對公司的歸屬感大打折扣,因那份花紅將隨交易員違規交易,累集團虧損約179億元而隨時凍過水,望望其投資銀行業務有逾1.7萬名員工,單是上半年支付給他們的開支便達33.9億瑞郎(約298億港元),即人均175萬港元,若花紅泡湯,即使可省回一大筆以填補巨額虧損,員工的鬥心恐也大受影響。

禤中怡自然向在這間瑞士金融巨頭打工的賓架朋友問候,他第一句就是:「仲有花紅!?」並坦言當初公司計劃未來兩年炒人,期望省回20億瑞郎(約175億港元),推測是讓留下來的精英日後可收取更高花紅,避免被撬走,可惜今年慳回來的也不夠填損失,恐怕裁員人數只會有增無減。

正在內地公幹的賓架朋友話,客戶自然知道公司蝕大本,更會惹來信心問題,故公司早已為他們安排預設答案,只需熟讀「劇本」交足戲,便可輕鬆應付。但他始終有憂慮,因為目前情況與08年相似,回憶當年9月初仍在美資大行上班,頂頭上司還著他放心工作,怎知3個月後的12月,竟然隨那位上司齊齊起身。萬一3個月後市況再差,他豈不是要………

對於瑞銀直到蝕大錢才發現,賓架朋友認為,市況突急跌,才令紙終包不住火也。那位違規交易員在過去3個月炒賣標普500指數、德國DAX指數及Eurostoxx指數期指,但市場流傳瑞郎突與歐元掛鈎,才是導致無法冚下去而爆煲的主因。

有趣的是,那個倉原本是作為業務對沖的部分組合,但被交易員的虛構和提早結算等行為隱瞞,代表原本用作減輕交易損失的操作,竟變成輸更多錢的源頭,認真諷刺。

翻查過去15年來,因違規交易而累歐洲的銀行出事主要場地,同樣是炒期指,兼且確也是市況急變,才令問題無彎轉。莫非歷史並非教訓,而真的是重演?法國第二大銀行法興銀行交易員Jerome Kerviel在07至08年間炒賣期指,累法興蝕49億歐元(約522億港元)。即使1995年2月英國霸菱銀行事件,那位新加坡霸菱期貨公司總裁兼首席交易員利森同樣炒高達4萬張日經指數期貨合約及日本長期公債與歐洲日圓期貨合約,但日本大地震,大市大挫,令公司虧損嚴重,甚至要將公司控制權易手告終。

3次炒期指輸大錢事件,可見愈賭愈深的結果有多悲壯,更重要的是,若單邊看市,無疑送羊入虎口,且看近期股市大上大落便知,故大家入場時要控制注碼外,更要控制投資情緒,否則為堅持己見而毀掉一生,實在不可取。

(9月21日刊於《am730》)

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