Wednesday, July 20, 2011

你抽我又抽

近期聽得最多的,相信非「抽水」莫屬,特首提出的「抽水」論,被對號入座的自動跳出來解畫,總之並非討論民生問題,最迫切的樓市問題仍需留待10月解決,讓不明朗因素揮之不去,對有意買賣樓宇的雙方也沒有好處。

在股市方面,該兩個字代表向市場伸手拿錢,長江基建(1038)於上周五以每股40.41元配售8,450萬股新股,籌集約34億元,耐人尋味的是,金額非大,不夠作大型收購,而去年底淨負債才30億元,不用急於還債,可能是股價見新高,已反映其實際價值,故趁勢集資。

至於內銀股亦由招商銀行(3968)掀開供股序幕,10股供2.2股,籌最多350億元人民幣(約465億港元),雖然未公布作價,但H股昨收報18.14元,較去年4月完成供股時的供股價10.06元為高,相信可吸引投資者捧場。建設銀行(939)、交通銀行(3328)和中國銀行(3988)的資本充足比率於首季均逾12%,但農業銀行(1288)資本充足比率於首季降0.19個百分點至11.4%,若要符合銀監會的11.5%要求,確可能有抽水機會,難怪該行董事長項俊波話要調整股息,保留多點盈利,勝過集資了。

至於民企被「渾水研究」質疑而遭殃後,也出現「抽水潮」,由信貸評級機構演出踩多腳,先有穆迪趁機插紅旗發一籃子警告,隨後惠譽也加入話一堆內企令人感憂慮。究竟怎樣帶眼識股?

在畢馬威(KMPG)最新一分簡稱《誰是典型騙子》的報告中,統計由其於08年1月至去年12月期間,在69個國家中調查的348宗真正騙案,發現一些共通點,首先在這些騙子中,87%都是男性,似乎與商業世界由男性主導有關,但原來女性比重於美國和亞太區均有上升趨勢,分別已佔22%和23%了。

另一個有趣現象,就是串通其他人行騙的比重竟暴漲至61%,主要涉及供應商和客戶,但原來64%男士們選擇與其他人「合作」,比女士們的比重僅33%為高,可見英雌較喜歡單獨行事。

至於這些人的年齡則介乎36至45歲,屬具備一定工作經驗人士,而當中由董事會成員欺騙所佔比重,從07年同類調查的11%,升至18%。另一樣值得注意的,竟是CEO(行政總裁)涉及這類欺詐的比重更從07年的11%,大幅升至26%之高,是不是在金融海嘯期間,他們面對的個人財政問題難以解決而向公司埋手,抑或無法抵受金錢誘惑呢?

能行騙公司的,其職位多涉財務及相關部門,但原來為公司貢獻了多少光陰也是一項指標,報告發現,高達60%涉案者已在同一間公司服務逾5年時間,而當中工作逾10年的更佔33%,兩項數據均較07年的調查有所上升。

做股東的,確實難辨公司是否遭欺騙,畢馬威指,可留意公司提升盈利能力的同時,是否能提高其現金流能力,而某部門員工更替頻繁也需留意。員工之間也可注意同事有否欺詐要點之一,竟是留意同事是否很少放假!

(7月20日刊於《am730》)

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