Wednesday, July 13, 2011

沽完又要買過

香港天氣近日驟變,一時陽光猛烈,一時陰暗悶熱,用作形容股市切合不過,正當大家預期壞消息盡出而曾現一輪反彈後,歐債危機又重燃、美國經濟復甦緩慢,內地又收緊銀根,令人憂慮,好消息卻欠奉,難怪全球一跌,即使歐美市場面對的問題早屬司空見慣,始終觸動投資者的神經。

港股踏入本月當然暫無法翻身,本月以來,恒指已累挫3.2%,國企股指數更累瀉4.3%,即使是個別行業股份陸續被洗倉,繼食品股如超大(682)和雨潤食品(1068),體育用品股亦自我引爆高增長神話,而民企風暴更愈刮愈烈。

內銀股自然也不好過,唯一能抹一把汗的,恐怕只有淡馬錫,皆因以每股6.26元沽出建設銀行(939)股份後,建行昨日連6元也失守,收報5.95元,即接貨者帳面已損失4.95%,而該間新加坡投資公司同時以每股平均價3.63元大手賣掉中國銀行(3988)股份,未知是否如此神通廣大,中行昨重挫至3.51元,代表跌破配股價,奈何認購淡馬錫減持股份的投資者,帳面每股也累跌3.3%。

經此一役,基金沽民企股後持有一手現金,加上像淡馬錫沽內銀股獲逾280億元資金,試問最後怎不會再投入金魚缸內,且看市盈率見單位數的股份如僅7.66倍的中國石化(386)會否受惠,或許大家尋尋寶也不錯。

不過,對於將在本周六解禁的農業銀行(1288)的策略股東而言,可能只有乾著急,因為該股昨收報3.82元,較招股定價3.2元僅多19.3%而已,若計及折讓價配售,恐怕回報不算理想,實在是食之無味,沽之可惜!相反,淡馬錫早著先鞭,在這一役中成功多賺一筆離場,而該公司早前亦話過去一年投資回報率約4%,相信下半年也鎖定利潤了。

面對大跌市,收取固定回報的投資工具立即吃香,而特區政府推出的通脹掛鈎債券此時正好吸引投資者的目光,但有證券商竟提供孖展認購服務,實行當新股炒,更錄逾一億元孖展額,認真神奇,由於該債券規模僅100億元,分一萬元一手的話,雖有100萬人受惠,獲配債券機會高,但金額之少,本來已經難談得上抗通脹,現在隨時輸掉孖展息呢!

新加坡政府對待其公積金(CPF)參與人士的回報便相對較佳。CPF參與者主要擁有3個帳戶,政府近年便向醫療儲蓄帳戶和特別帳戶提供年息達4厘回報,認真慷慨,難為當地銀行目前定存息僅1厘或以下,想揾生意便辛苦了。

至於普通帳戶金額則用作購屋、投資等。有趣的是,在該帳戶內所獲年息保證雖只有2.5厘,卻令新加坡人一直用公積金買樓的傳統有所改變。同樣拜美國量化寬鬆政策所賜,當地銀行同樣提供拆息樓按,息率為SOR(新加坡銀行同業拆息)加0.75厘計,其SOR為O.2厘,即按息僅0.95厘而已,較公積金回報還低1.55厘,試問置業時,怎會放棄較高回報,而不享受低息呢?

(7月13日刊於《am730》)

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