Wednesday, June 08, 2011

靠廣告定靠實力

六四當晚,同行朋友話參加人數不會多,因為是周末兼長假期,禤中怡卻認為捧場者依然多,最終7時進場,勉強擠進第四個足球場,而後面的足球場也很快被「填滿」。當主持要求89年後出世的朋友舉起蠟燭時,身邊男男女友響應者眾(相信這刻不用虛報年紀吧!),禤中怡和朋友當然只有望的份兒。

事件結束已有多日,但至今不明的是,警方曾話參加者太多,故要封閉部分主要入口,奈何事後公布卻話,高峰期只有7.7萬人參加,若果人數只有這麼少,那麼警方怎需封閉部分入口,著參加者繞路而入呢?若果真是參加人數眾多,又為何官方數字與主辦單位所指的逾15萬人相差那麼遠,究竟警方的邏輯思維是甚麼呢?

投資世界亦然,上周見到大市一彈,真的覺得投行為源庫資源(394)招股護航,投行亦落足彈藥推波助瀾,報章廣告鋪天蓋地般,畢竟集資逾200億元,那些廣告使費根本談不上甚麼,但問題是公司本身仍處發展階段,本身欠缺業績支持,那些煤礦和鐵礦項目最快也要2014年方投產,叫投資者先付款入場,還要等3年才見眉目,奈何只有虧,未見盈,大賣廣告又有何用?究竟又是甚麼邏輯思維?之後該股即使傳削減招股價,也無法吸引投資者,最終無法繼續支撐下去,只好腰斬招股計劃。

記得在2000年科網熱潮,大班間36.com招股時誠實地話,公司可能永遠無法賺取或保持盈利這個風險因素,但追捧者依然冇有怕。今日有些礦業股經營業績也欠奉,豈不是與科網股有異曲同工之妙?

禤中怡再看看保薦人陣容有中銀國際、滙豐、蘇皇加瑞銀,甚至找來中方的中冶金(1618)和中鐵(390)幫手,也不能圓夢。原來欠缺一直佔據投行前列位置的美方成員,恐怕下次想搶錢,要讓美方加入保薦人陣營,畢竟公司的項目有待投產,讓美資行想些新花,如買座正生產的礦藏包裝一番,有收入有業績,或許有成功登陸股市的機會。

其實,即使能夠成功上市,也要看看公司管理層的執行能力,且看於09年12月趕尾班車的勝利管道(1080),該公司竟然在短短1年多時間內,合共發出3次盈利預警之多,真是夠驚嚇。

該集團話,今年上半年盈利將會大跌,原因同樣與上次發盈警的一樣,就是中國對大型管道項目採取緊縮措施所致,令公司訂單大減等,若果管理層真的不知道會有這個政策問題,就是太幸運地掌握了最佳時機上市了!

除上市首個月能夠浮上水面「逃生」之外,該股股價直至目前依然潛水,昨日更無可避免地,受發盈警拖累而捱沽,單日挫3.5%至1.37元收市,與其招股價2.2元比較,代表足足不見了37.7%市值。不過,該集團埋下伏筆,話上半年有數項投標中標,更話對全年業績審慎樂觀,是否管理層再一次掌握好時機?

(6月8日刊於《am730》)

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