Wednesday, August 10, 2011

美國財金界的智慧

上周才話免費報章有發展空間,壹傳媒(282)立刻表態將加入戰團,最快月內面世,還傳出有潛在對手,恐怕大家爭奪廣告外,還要爭派報員和派送位置吧!

股市也出現爭先派貨,先行沽售離場,望清楚才入市。地球村內各股市齊跌多跤,美股周一恐慌性拋售,亞洲股市難獨善其身,港股裂口暴瀉,恒指於開市競價時段已跌穿19,000點,之後再慢慢攀升千點至重越20,000點,午後3時更曾高見20,158點,將跌幅大為收窄之際,再在短短一個小時內直插828點,至19,330點收市,對炒波幅的投資者而言肯定有機會,但對撈底的投資者來說,若果不嚴守止蝕,則可能又變蟹貨了。

美國的「財經智慧」實在不能不佩服,正當政府就提高國債上限達成協議之際,評級機構標準普爾偏偏選擇在這時才調低美國主權評級,儘管禤中怡一直不覺得美國值3條A,好了,市場立時炒政府收縮開支兼引致經濟衰退,油價應聲回落,對美國人用油的支出便減少,通脹憂慮又少一樣。

重頭戲是,過去拿著森姆叔叔發行的國債做孖展借錢,債主見你用麻鷹國聲稱「零風險」的投資產品做抵押品,自然樂於借錢,供債仔再去投資,而投資對象當然是風險更高的產品。

但當國債評級遭降,等同用作抵押的股票價格回落一樣,不再像以往般零風險,或值錢時,債仔被追孖展,觸發債仔拋售股票,因為這是最快套現的方法,債仔藉此鞏固本身的資本實力,避免遭斬倉,而如果你沽我賣,形成雪球效應,便會引致股市大幅下挫,真是多多也未沽完。

正當大家恐慌之際,手上資金怎樣保值呢?湧入黃金理所當然,況且黃金價升對美國政府的通脹不會有太大殺傷力。至於另一項反而是重臨美國國債,故近日其孳息率反跌至歷史新低,皆因大家要避險也,而這種趨勢發展下去,當財政部可以重新發債的話,他們便可以用更低的息率向市場借錢,繼續其借貸度日的奢華生活。

投資界朋友交來一份對沖基金報告,發現這些專業人士亦難對後市作評估,如對歐債危機前景,報告話,歐元區不是分裂,就是更為團結的金融組織,即無答案,而對美國可能推出第三次量化寬鬆措施(QE3),卻認為是風險而非機會,代表有凶險。唯一肯定的是,就是該基金仍看好亞洲市場。

相反,在風雨飄搖之際,政府推沙田九肚山地皮拍賣,只承一口價55億元,便由信和置業(083)、嘉里建設(683)和萬泰所組財團投得,每方呎樓面地價僅5,332元,測量界又跌眼鏡,皆因有些估值低至72億元,每方呎樓面地價也要近7,000元,相差達23%,未知是股市大挫影響投資者信心,抑或其他發展商讓路,才出現競爭欠奉的場面,但肯定輸錢機會微。

(8月10日刊於《am730》)

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