Wednesday, August 31, 2011

孖展壓力測試防爆煲

看著副總理訪港的保安安排,再加上立法會一場解畫,實在令禤中怡擔心,香港的軟實力正慢慢消失,示威和言論自由被剝削,大學這個重要堡壘遭踐踏,甚至干預傳媒的採訪權,豈不是跟內地無異?

當然,與內地融合屬大勢所趨,像港交所(388)話,隻人證港幣交易通最快於10月登場。所謂人證港幣交易通,就是購買人民幣計價股份的投資者,可經由銀行或經紀等渠道兌換或取得人民幣之外,港交所再設立一個備用設施,讓投資者在沒有足夠人民幣時,也可以用港元購買人民幣計價股份。

同證券行朋友談起,他說,的確可以多一個途徑去做人民幣計價股份的交易,但日後港交所所收港元兌人民幣的匯價仍屬未知之數,倒不如幫客問銀行所收兌換價還方便,況且證券行幫客換人民幣當中,還可以想想是否賺點差價,幫補服務,故該人證港幣交易通屬後備居多。

他更說,目前大市可供買賣的人幣計價股份僅得一隻,而市況又非佳,起碼待更多人幣計價股份招股上市才會產生顯著作用,況且唯一那隻人幣計價股份匯賢產業信託(87001)表現亦非理想,股價雖然昨日升0.5%,至3.99元人民幣收市,但與招股定價5.24元人民幣比較,認購的投資者仍潛水多達23.8%。

除該股外,近期港股風聲鶴唳,藍籌股走樣,其實有些行業股份已經「重傷」,像概念股便從高市盈率的「高台」跌下來,如新材料股中,生產纖維素產品的賽得利(1768)昨日收報2.33元,升2.6%,但單在本月以來,該股已累挫38.5%之多,而保利協鑫(3800)股價在本月累積回落21%,難怪大市向上,亦不代表大家有錢賺,因為與家鄉仍有一段距離。

朋友話,股市下跌外,證監會又出招,變相生意又受影響。監管機構為防止證券公司「爆煲」,最近已同證券行打招呼,要求做壓力測試,了解他們能否應付市場變化。

客戶為增加籌碼,或用股份作抵押,向證券行借錢買賣股票,即孖展也,用藍籌股抵押,一般也能借股份價值的六成至七成,即客戶起碼要拿三成作本金,貸款水平相對穩陣,因為藍籌短時間內跌三成,肯定是大跌市了。至於細價股風險相對較高,能夠借到三成已不俗。

不過,壓力測試要求也頗高,如需計算藍籌股價值按市值再跌20%至30%,而細價股更厲害,要計算股價如果大挫50%,對證券行所借孖展的影響,由於股價近期已回落不少,如再錄如此幅度的回落,根本連客戶所付的現金部分亦早已蒸發掉,即意味證券行提早向客戶追孖展也。

當然,證券行資本雄厚實力強勁的,仍有足夠資本應付,其他中小型證券商便沒有那種能耐。朋友話,有時客戶具經濟實力,見跌市想博反彈,奈何面對壓力測試,那管是多一成孖展,也不能多借,大市翻身了,卻沒有他們的份兒。

(8月31日刊於《am730》)

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