Wednesday, November 03, 2010

有升又有息

萬眾期待的7個國家及地區在一周內輪流議息的大場面終揭幕,澳洲率先發難,突然加息0.25厘,令市場措手不及,而當地央行選擇在美國推出次輪量化寬鬆政策前夕出手,避免資產泡沫繼續擴大,而印度加息0.25厘則屬預期之內,因為要控制通脹也!本來金融海嘯爆發後,各國紛減息自救,甚至降至偏低水平,故即使加息0.25厘,仍屬合理,因仍與海嘯前的正常水平有一段距離。可惜的是,今次非正常經濟循環周期,資金避走歐美,持續追捧新興市場,故恐怕這場貨幣戰爭已迫令這些新興市場政府需續加息,形成股市升,息口也升的局面。不過,這些國家的貨幣匯價也向上,或打擊本土出口業,且看稍後議息的印尼會否採取相同策略,而未來又要如何解決這個難題呢?

時代進步,拿昔日的「戰況」作參考尚可,但現今衍生工具當道、資訊滿溢等,根本不可同日而語,實際運作時,大家要步步為營。同外匯界朋友談起,外匯市場風高浪急,散戶已不敢輕舉妄動,只有大戶續在匯市「覓食」。

至於香港跟美國走,息口難加,但銀行已調高按揭息率,「配合」陳總的「無招勝有招」,況且按揭生意若果已經達標,或接近完成全年指標,銀行也不會繼續做微利生意。

反過來看,美國聯儲局亦迫於形勢而需採取措施,「配合」市場的訴求,讓市場有更多「新水」流入,否則掃市場興的話便遭殃了。況且美國總統奧巴馬面對中期選舉,定必要用政策市托高股價,讓投資者開心,才會獲得選票,畢竟市升比回落感覺良好吧!

另一不容忽視的因素,就是華府亦要積極搵水,需要市好來配合。繼財政部投資花旗集團(Citigroup)的450億美元(約3,510億港元),已經收回416億美元(約3,244.8億港元)後,準備再賣15億股花旗普通股,希望再搵多筆。至於另一麻煩友美國國際集團(AIG)亦成功減持友邦保險(1299)股權,套現逾千億元,連同以162億美元(約1,263億港元)將American Life Insurance Co(ALICO)出售 ,共獲近370億美元(約2,886億港元),可供償還政府的貸款。

早前講通用汽車(GM)要重新上市,本月是關鍵時刻,故股市不容有失,因為財政部已向這間汽車股注入495億美元(約3,861億港元),即使通用汽車上周斥21億美元(約163.8億港元)向財政部回購批優先股,連同過去已償還債款等,財政部至今只收回95億美元(約741億港元),故該公司上市才是重頭戲,皆因涉及達106億美元(約826.8億港元)。

單是上述3間大企業提供的回籠資金,分分鐘高達接近7,000億港元,正好待聯儲局的金融政策(Monetary Policy)面世後,再由儲足彈藥的財政部主動採取財政政策(Fiscal Policy),大派金錢,希望挽回民望,故此即使大市要顯著調整,之後也要讓市況好轉,不能讓GM上市失手。

(於11月3日刊於《am730》)

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