Wednesday, October 20, 2010

人行降溫一石幾鳥

股市債市無得停,禤中怡於上月28日講﹁歌舞昇平不要忘形﹂,恒生指數當時才22,340點,現在已累積上升逾1,423點,難怪連金管局總裁任志剛也要叫大家小心。

內地人民銀行便出其不意地加存款和貸款息率,向聲稱央行年內加息微的國務院發展研究中心金融研究所副所長巴曙松潑了一盆冷水。

央行是次調高一年期存款和貸款息率0.25厘,但細心一看,短息調整卻有所不同,半年定期存款息加0.22厘,至2.2厘,但同期貸款息卻加多一點,為0.24厘,令息率上調至5.1厘,引致存貸息差由2.88厘,擴闊至2.9厘,變相讓銀行賺得更多。

不過,選擇借長錢的話又作別論,以5年定期存款為例,年息加0.6厘,至4.2厘,相對地,3至5年的貸款年息則只調高0.2厘,至5.96厘,而5年以上的貸款年息同樣只增0.2厘,至6.14厘,故銀行將定存用作放出貸款5年以上的話,存貸息差卻由原來的2.34厘,大幅
收窄0.4厘,至1.94厘,那麼會否引導銀行多借出短錢,少貸出長錢呢?

看看新浪網所作調查,在網上投票逾7萬名網民中,竟有多達77.8%認為加息能夠抑制樓市投機,11.8%認為不可能,反映民眾覺得,息口因素可以打擊投機行為。至於對股市的影響方面,看淡的比重有57%,而有28.9%認為對股市提供利好作用,或許是消除不明朗因素
吧。從政治層面看,加息無疑誘發更多資金流入,迫人民幣升值,相信可以滿足花旗國的要求,而本身也可短期內冷卻市場兼控制通脹,兼減慢新增貸款步伐,畢竟﹁硬指標﹂不能有失,否則怎向領導交代,可謂一石幾鳥。

由於內地政府的﹁十二五﹂續支持提高人民收入等政策推出,促使上海綜指昨日抽上,微微升穿3,000點,至3,001點收市,而加息落實後,市場可能先震一震,特別是息口敏感類股份如內房股和內銀股,待消化了之後,又再炒過,因為企業第三季業績應不俗吧!

至於港股昨日當然要加入深滬股市大隊,恒指更收復周一的失地,除藍籌國企外,追蹤內股市的DBX滬深300指數ETF(3049)亦受追捧,雖只增1.2%至8.71元,但成交額逾6.5億元,成為大市最大成交額第
17位。該交易所買賣基金(ETF)於周一計算的每股資產淨值為7.7832元,較收市價折讓達10.6%。

除了股市外,債市亦旺,國家開發銀行批人幣債券登場後,亞洲開發銀行亦安排其人幣債券在港交所(388)掛牌,難怪股債選擇多。不過,人行加息後,人債息率吸引力多少被削弱,返內地做定存或更著數,唯一博匯率升值。

加息前夕,用QFII額度投資於中國內地A股的宏利盈進基金SPC旗下隻中國A股獨立資產組合,原來昨日亦已認購額滿,反映大家對投資祖國的熱誠,相信人行加息後,大家仍會繼續捧場,但禤中怡依舊一句:﹁不要忘形﹂。

(於10月20日刊於《am730》)

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