Tuesday, April 22, 2008

內地股民望天打卦

正當中國同美國經濟背馳之際,原來大家都有同一個使命:「救市」。美國的金融機構撇帳驚人,樓市股市都須挽救,而中國證券監管機構頭痛的卻是股份數量供應源源不絕,對股市造成衝擊,可謂各有煩惱。

中國證監會上周日想出用非流通股要遵守新規則這一招,希望舒緩市場下跌壓力,但仔細望清楚一點,只是叫上市公司要準確披露,兼限制在業績前30日內不能轉讓等,意味非流通股出街問題根本未解決,只是規範化而已,就好像港交所(388)規定上市公司的主要股東不能在業績公布前買賣股份一樣,是否代表對股市有利好作用呢?

當然,股市最易受消息牽動,即使是中性消息,只要是中證監出手,已肯定被視為救市好消息,難怪內地股市瘋狂半日那麼多啦!指數高開低收,反而成為「蟹貨」離場的好機會,難怪市場承接乏力。

你估內地股民怎看待這個「指導意見」呢?望望新華網搞了個即時民意調查,第一個問題就是中國證監會這個新規定的影響,當時有逾4,200人回應,有逾51%認為短暫會有助股市回暖,未來還需制度建設。至於新規定是否能夠提升投資者信心、穩定市場,股市將向好,僅有9.9%提交意見的表示認同,其餘更覺得是心理影響較大,可見大家都有更高的期望,且認為這個措施實質效用不大。

至於那種救市政策最為股民期待呢?一如所料,就是62%的投資者認為應調節或取消印花稅,而利用稅收手段規範非流通股的供應的則佔23.54%。那麼炒股策略又如何?約45.73%話觀望、減持的則有38.78%,增持的只有15.49%,反映一般投資者面對這種難以理出一個頭緒的大前提下,只有按兵不動,實行望天打卦。

所謂一不離二,出了第一招,市場就可以演繹為還有第二、三招陸續有來,相信消息對大市的波動性將加強,短炒上落的,就有機會覓食了。

港股亦趁中美救市造好,恒指裂口抽上破24,800點,淡友忙冚倉,恒指全日就企在高位不跌,上落點數只有219點,可見好友勝了一場大仗。

未知是何原因,近期見到零售股的股東頻減持,首先李寧(2331)主席李寧上月25日用19.6元批3,000萬股,骨水5.88億元,股價昨日收市報19.76元,接貨者有賺。收購頻繁的百麗(1880)這兩日內料完成配售,股價仍升0.1%至8.01元收市。即使國美(493)那位富豪黃光裕低價17元批盪逾1.25億股,股價收市前才略低見16.9元,大部分時間均企在批盪價之上,肯認購的投資者亦不用蝕大本。臨近奧運,照計零售股應被看好,究竟是高位離場,還是將股份落入強人之手,另有後著呢?

(4月22日刊於《am730》)

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