Wednesday, November 29, 2006

紐約交易所中國掘金

香港股市與中國企業的關係,只要看看昨日港股10大成交額的上市公司中,有幾多家為內地企業(共8間)已可知一二。而環球資金近來對中國概念的膜拜,也顯示出中國企業資本市場在世界金融發展的重要性如何。

禤中怡昨日與美國的投資大行家閒聊,始知原來紐約交易所行政總裁John Thain原來剛剛才Go To China,進行其親善訪問。大行家坦言,美國財經市場已相當成熟,大型集資活動在可見的將來,相信也不能不預祖國企業一份,John Thain訪華,正正可視為向祖國企業示好的最直接表現。

其實世界級交易所要吸納祖國企業出國集資上市是自然不過的舉動,但從另一角度分析,在全球化之下,資金流動可以在分秒間完成交易,中國企業為何還要飄洋過海,跟外資賓架食早餐、傾生意呢?現實點說,外資大行們在過去十年其實已在最近祖國的南大門——Hong Kong建立了基地,各大投資銀行必備賓架、律師、會計師等專業人士隨時候命,令香港成為祖國企業集資的大水喉。

不過,世界上沒有不可能的事,禤中怡相信John Thain訪華,絕對只是招商活動的前奏項目,美國商人最識時務,好戲相信陸續有來。

John Thain已在內地進行4日訪問,展開金融反擊戰。他已表明正申請在內地首都北京開設辦事處,希望游說更多內地企業前往美國交易所上市。

不說不知,這位總裁原來自擔任該職位後已第三度訪華,可知他對這個神州大地的重視程度,而於北京設辦事處的另一好處當然是接近監管部門,容易「收風」,任何風吹草動也可以即時應對,而實際的生意,即招攬公司往上市的地點,相信非上海莫屬,皆因國際大型投資銀行相信已進駐這個金融重鎮。

紐約交易所面對倫敦和香港的證券交易所的挑戰,自然不敢輕視,而John Thain也不能不努力,例如紐交所現時只有31間來自中國、香港和台灣的公司掛牌,當中內地企業佔18間,市值才4,580億美元(約3.5萬億港元),與港交所(388)於10月底在主板已有89間H股公司,市值已逾2.3萬億元,而中資紅籌股公司在主板也有85間,市值也超過2.5萬億元的盛況比較,相信這些數據已能立判高低吧。

John Thain認為,傳統內地企業較傾向在香港上市集資,但他認為隨著大批內地企業的業務走向國際化,並且從事跨國投資,英美交易所希望吸引一些資金需求大的公司往海外上市。他認為在未來3至5年間,紐交所也要變得更趨全球化和多樣化,故此除中國外,也要在印度建立市場地位。

不過,正如美國財長保爾森所言,始終要先放寬上市條例才有競爭力。雖然能否打勝仗還未知,但肯定的是其他發達國家的交易所相信也會仿效紐交所,將會陸續來華朝拜,希望分一杯羹。

港股大插插 新股震騰騰
港股昨日午後大插插,雖然不至如《am730》上周提醒大家「熊(市) 出沒注意」般嚴重,但也為一眾投資者響起警號,不要沉醉在升市的帳面財富之中。

相信大家見到中資銀行股持續轉弱,也必料到港股距離調整不遠,由於下月期指見18,680點,會否再出現「挾好倉」行動,務必要打醒十二分精神。

其實,今年恒指和國企指數已累積上升25%和52%,基金經理已輕易達到指標,或者實行提早放假了。若果真如此,何不沽貨獲利套現,索性鎖死利潤回報,即使股市再創高峰,也不會與同行的表現相差太遠。

至於Investment bank(投資銀行)的生意就更不用說,看看中國銀行(3988)和工商銀行(1398)等巨無霸的集資額便知道賺佣金賺到手軟。不過,從他們在最後這兩個月極度衝刺,安排十多隻新股上市,相信原因不外乎一來想趁市旺集資,而且夾雜在一些有實力的新股中抽水,分分鐘可「混水摸魚」,二是避免帳目「過期」,皆因現在上市的話,仍可用中期業績作為上市文件的重要數據,若不幸延至明年的話,恐怕港交所(388)會要求公司重新製定一份Update的業績報告,即叫各協助上市的投資銀行、會計師等重新努力多一次,你話可以不可以?

此外,有證券界朋友提醒,原來有些證券行或以所持股票投資去支持其資本,故一旦股市向下,即他們所持股份市值相應縮水,意味資本也減少,日後新股招股時,可提供的孖展額度將因此而受到影響,借錢能力相對調低,認購反應無可避免被拖累。更大問題是,多隻新股同時集資,證券行勢必集中向大市值的中資股靠攏,即強者愈強,其他股份的結果會如何呢?

(11月29日刊於《am730》)

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