Monday, November 20, 2006

交易所風雲變

昨日在《am730》看見馬沙兄及CK兄的專欄,先恭喜兩位精英博客晉身為專欄作家,兩位仁兄的行文水準極高,對《am730》的讀者而言,實屬好事。

江湖有傳聞,南韓證券交易所上市的時候,東京證券交易所會入股。東京證券交易所否認這宗傳聞,只稱東京證券交易所有意同南韓證券交易所結盟,並且交叉持股,但在IPO時認購一份就無咁嘅事。

查實港交所(388)高層,應該睇到這單新聞的微言大義,然後部署怎樣出手。現時東京證券交易所好明顯對自身地位感到好焦慮,因為隨著中國經濟的發展,以及全球證券交易走向24小時交易的大趨勢,東京證券交易所一定要諗計同人合作以及擴張,之前宣布同NYSE(紐約證券交易所)合作,現時又傳出要入股南韓證券交易所,大家都想到東京證券交易所的假想敵,其中一個好明顯是港交所。當然,香港暫時未必搵到倫敦、納斯達克(Nasdaq)等歐美盟友結盟住(雖然遲點很難說,NYSE與泛歐(Euronext)合併後,對倫敦證券交易所(London Stock Exchange)威脅很大),但南韓人在民族感情上,未必好想同東京證券交易所結盟,始終南韓同日本,並非搞煤鐵同盟時的法國同德國,德國有先向法國叩頭認錯。1950年5月9日,法國外交部長羅伯特·舒曼提出建立歐洲煤鋼共同體,解決法德之間就兩國邊境煤鋼資源約100年的衝突,雙方設聯合機構共同管理,結束兩國的敵對狀態。

今日中國同南韓關係不錯,南韓證券交易所並非沒有世界頂級IT企業上市,如三星、LG等,如果香港同南韓證券交易所結盟,提高中國企業在南韓集資機會,又可以提高港交所的實力,又何樂而不為,而且進一步做好個名後,同倫敦及納斯達克傾合作,籌碼亦多些。當然不是明知貴貨都要買,但港交所自以為有中國市場撐住就不思進取,未免「太牙煙」。與其等港交所簡化其他註冊地點的企業來港上市程序(如果南韓股市沒有被北韓陰影搞亂檔的話),不如順便入股南韓證券交易所,可能更實際同直接。

不過,港交所似乎真的好像「唔憂做」,內地龐大企業群排隊來港上市外,對岸的台灣企業亦樂於登陸港股,因台灣企業在內地的廠房規模已十分龐大,但要回台灣上市就問題多多,難怪今年在台灣交易所上市掛牌的公司數目比去年大幅萎縮,前三季上市公司集資金額只有1,265億元新台幣(約299億港元),比去年同期大減六成,今年上市公司籌資金額將創近十年新低。自02年起在台灣招股上市公司數目更由85家持續下降,更呈下跌趨勢,再加上如富士康(2038)等台灣企業股價表現對辦,相信台資企業來港上市將陸續有來,最新就是食品業龍頭企業統一集團準備將內地業務明年來港掛牌集資,避開投資內地只准佔企業資產40%上限的規定。

雖然港交所在內地和台灣兩地吃得開,但納斯達克剛出手,準備動用27億英鎊(約398億港元)收購倫敦證券交易所的舉動就要認真看待。大家知道倫敦已成為全球主要金融中心,若果美國納斯達克吃掉歐洲的龍頭,勢必建立另一個爭霸渠道,屆時中資企業若同時可以於歐美兩地的證券交易所上市,身份便變得「寧舍不同」,是不是更可滿足中國企業的國際慾,還會選擇這個東方之珠嗎?當然,目前美國上市條件頗辛辣,中資企業要登陸彼方着實不易,但難保日後修改條例,放寬部分上市要求。面對交易所收購、合併、結盟等等合作模式,港交所甚至金融管理當局應重新思考未來金融市場發展方向,靠阿爺餵奶的時代恐怕已接近見底,真的要想想走出去打「世界波」。

(11月21日刊於《am730》)

14 Comments:

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