Tuesday, November 21, 2006

金錢與月亮掛鈎

已創刊逾84年的《哈佛商業評論》最近在11月號有篇文章頗有趣,皆因同大家的荷包有關,但論點卻是以月亮做基礎。

沒有看錯,是金錢與月亮掛鈎。自古以來,很多學者和天文學家找證據,證明月亮圓缺周期會影響人的思考和行為。該雜誌刊出一篇名為「都是月亮惹的禍」的文章,探討月亮周期對股市回報影響的報告。

該文章引述密歇根大學(University of Michigan)的依利亞.迪契夫(Ilia D. Dichev)和紐約州立大學水牛城校區(SUNY Buffalo)的卓伊.詹斯(TroyD. Janes)認為過去許多研究探討的可能都是極端行為,而令公信力受質疑。因此他們選擇研究每日有數億名投資者做決策的股票市場。他們提出要研究的問題是:如果滿月會讓人感到沮喪或悲觀,是否也會觸發投資者對未來現金流量感到悲觀,為了避險而造成股價下挫?

他們詳細檢視25間證券交易所在過去30年資料,統計和研究發現月亮圓缺周期和股價之間有關連成份。依照陰曆的日期,盡量避開滿月時間,就能獲得較高投資回報率。這個論點看來有點玄,但報告發現在陰曆的一個月當中,比較接近新月的15天,也就是新月的前7天和後7天買股票,投資回報率高於接近滿月的另外15天,兩者回報率相差最高可達10%。 而且不只美國股市有這個現象,連日本、英國和法國的股市同樣都受到月亮盈缺的影響。專家分析估計可能是月亮盈缺,容易牽動個人情緒。滿月時,容易讓人沮喪悲觀,投資者常常為了避免風險而沽股票,造成股價和投資回報率下挫,所以下次買賣股票的時候,先抬頭望一望月亮是圓或缺,或者可以找到投資策略也說不定。

美國消費初探

聖誕節燈飾已到處閃亮,提醒大家銷售旺季來臨,不要睇小這一個月的時間,和黃(013)大班Canning霍曾話隨時做一個月等如上半年的營業額,可見這個普世歡騰的大節日對歐美人士的重要性。

若果大家想分析出口或工業股今年生意如何,應先了解市場。最近美國波士頓顧問集團(BCG)進行了一個調查,向超過2,500名美國成年人做訪問。其中較具指標性的,就是樓價對消費的影響。自布殊總統和聯儲局局長伯南克上演的一齣停加息、降油價,及股市旺的大場面後,樓價卻反似有放緩跡象,投資者難免有憂慮。這個因素相信香港人絕對感同身受,若果層樓變負資產,還會做「大花筒」嗎?若果樓價升,感覺荷包腫脹了一點,安全感較高,使錢自然疏爽。

幸好,67%受訪者話樓市波動對其無影響,僅22%話會使少一些,至於有11%更話會花費更多的原因就不得而知。假若樓價明年跌10%又會不會勒住荷包呢?真厲害,覺得不受影響比例進一步升至71%,減少消費的只佔17%,證明美國人不怕樓價跌。這個情況或許從瑞銀主管陸東上周講明年經濟趨勢時話,只要美國人有工做,繼續有收入,便不用擔心個人經濟問題,因仍有能力還錢嘛!

所謂天不怕,地不怕,今年美國人恐怕不會增加儲錢,因為調查發現收入介乎3.5萬至4.99萬美元的,準備花費更多所佔比重較05年增3個百分點至18.6%,收入逾10萬美元的受訪者中,樂於使更多的佔28%,比05年大增1.4個百分點,即意味高檔消費品今趟有生意了。雖然該調查於10月進行,但相信美國人的樂觀情緒不會輕易改變,反映不會單靠紙上富貴(即樓市上落,財富亦有變化)。雖然如此,禤中怡還是勸句,花無百日紅!

(11月22日刊於《am730》)

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