Friday, November 24, 2006

港股之熊出沒注意

近排禤中怡部電腦的牆紙(wall paper),換了北海道常見的「熊出沒注意」告示牌,告示牌上面的熊,當然並非得意可愛的熊公仔,而是很得人驚的猛熊,理由很簡單,現時中國的國有銀行素質那麼差,更話要開放市場。現時大小股民都對金魚缸的狀況口沫橫飛,又不知自己投資這批素質的資產,真是不驚才怪。

先講兩個重要指標,睇銀行是否穩陣,紮馬夠不夠紮實,先睇資本充足比率,再睇成間銀行裡面,做監管部門的員工,佔整體員工數目的比重。根據《巴塞爾協定》,銀行資本充足比率至少有8%才可,但香港金管局建議銀行可做到10%更好。一般國際性大銀行做監管部門的同事佔整間銀行員工數目的5%,當中不少更是高手,想逃過他們的法眼都幾難。

現時中國四大商業國有銀行,話就話資本充足比率平均有8%,但亦要多得剝離不良貸款才可達致該水平,反映個底本身都幾薄,幸好再有上市的新「水」加入充實底子,不過,最感憂慮的是,大家都知國有銀行的分行經理,有能力成億成億人民幣虧空,隨便因關係而批貸款亦不再是新聞,底子再厚也有個漏「水」洞就已經有很大問題。但根據中國官方傳媒的報道,負責監管部門的同事,只係佔成間銀行員工的1%,今時今日有否增加人手則令人成疑。

以中國那麼大,你話銀行監管部門的員工,有無可能制止那些虧空公款,因貪污而借錢的情況?禤中怡已經無比較四大銀行,究竟有幾多冗員,以及國有企業員工包袱要處理。大家試想想,中國銀行(3988)、工商銀行(1398)、交通銀行(3328)、建設銀行(939)這些大型國有銀行,過去一兩年在香港股市吸了不少水,佔市值比例有幾高。一個股市由這些風險那麼高的資產撐住,還有成群投資者不知死活地炒窩輪及一班輸錢不負責的財經演員。你話熊來到時會不會死傷慘重,今次隻熊實有大把大閘蟹食。

亞洲小型企業看傳承
公司承傳一向是股東關注的重要事項,但沒有一種絕對模式是例必奏效的,看見思捷環球(330)大股東邢李㷧成功帶領公司強大起來,終極成為藍籌股後,他便樂得退下來,逐步售股套現,不用再擔任日常管理營運的角色,享受家庭樂。但另一邊廂,馮氏昆仲承接祖業後,携手把利豐(494)推向國際舞台,還有其他上市公司如利亞零售(8052)等。

當然大型企業有很多種解決方法,但亞洲小型企業的老闆又會怎樣處理呢?一項調查顯示,原來他們已逐漸打破把企業交給下一代經營的傳統觀念,據花旗銀行對5個亞洲市場調查顯示,近三成小型企業的老闆會把生意交給下一代經營,但有42.5%的企業希望交給專業經理人經營。

原來在國際化環境下,愈來愈多亞洲家族的企業規模逐漸壯大,聘請專業經理人有助管理和拓展業務的模式值得仿效。花旗銀行較早前在新加坡、香港、馬來西亞、南韓和印度5個亞洲市場,向677間年營業額不超過1,000萬美元(約7,800萬港元)的小型企業主或專業人士進行調查。

若單看新加坡市場看,調查顯示有22%的小型企業老闆仍想把公司業務交給孩子經營,但已有40%希望最後公司能交由專業經理人經營。不過,17%的打算把公司賣掉,更有4%的老闆則打算結束經營。 另外,原來62%的新加坡小型企業老闆主要靠個人積蓄創業,比亞洲受調查5個市場平均50.4%為高,反映創業都是靠自己的第一桶金,但肯放下包袱,願意交給其他人管理甚至出售套現,證明他們懂得甚麼時候放下,那份氣魄並非人人有。

(11月24日刊於《am730》)

15 Comments:

At 8:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

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At 12:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

目前大陸銀行股的確有泡沫, 但是如果用長線
10-40年以上可以說還是便宜之極.

10前深圳仲係小城市...今日點........
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