Monday, November 06, 2006

萬八點後的反思

恒生指數上周五收市報18,749點,微升34點,禤中怡不是股神巴菲特,不懂得尋找股市最高點,而且自知膽小,故在過去一、兩個月已經開始減持股份,現時手上持有的,可能只是一些歷年來的慘敗蟹貨。

作為一個暫時已離場的投資人(以私人戶口計算),我觀察近月來股市出現了一些現象,或可與讀者分享一下,但事先說明,這並非甚麼投資建議,切忌以此等觀點作出投資決定。

(一)越來越多人入市─偶然行過中環各大銀行的櫥窗前,自會發覺一批批的市民在「襟機」看股價,這現象在年中股市停滯時,曾經低沉一陣,但近月股市屢創新高之下,人潮洶湧情況再次出現。

(二)市場對牛市意見分歧─還記得恒指還在萬七點上下徘徊時,財資市場當時普遍預期股市已達牛市尾聲,部分意見認為調整份屬必然,但當恒指銳勢衝破萬八點關口後,牛市盡頭的說法便被股民們拋諸腦後。

(三)銀行水浸影響股市─以工商銀行(1398)上市為例,禤中怡最初也只是抱著小股民細注抽新股的策略,但在招股前,不斷接到銀行傳來的message,提供「平到笑」的孖展抽新股服務,只需4萬元按金,就可以不到300元一口價利息,獲得差不多8倍的孖展額度,禤中怡周遭很多朋友,都難以抗拒如此引誘,再一次證明銀行水浸,貸款能力疲弱,為求資金有出路,直接鼓勵股民大舉入市真實情況。以這種推動力,就正好令一眾小股民更容易投入短線投機炒作,另一方面,更叫人擔心的,是小股民們的投資心態,銀行幫忙借錢給小股民賺快錢,市旺時問題相對不大,但若市況轉淡時,短線投機資金便走得最快。

(四)美股與港股的走勢─道瓊斯工業平均指數近期也在12,000點的高位徘徊,從05年12月30日,道指收市為10,717點,至上周五,收市報11,986點,上升達1,269點,升幅約11.8%,而恒指在05年12月30日收報14,876點,至上周五為18,749點,更大幅上升3,873點,升幅達26%。值得留意的是美國期內雖然不斷加息壓抑通脹,但經濟數據(尤其是房地產)以至股市仍能走在一片上升軌道上,但目前息口見頂,美股乘勢一鼓作氣衝上歷史高位,但經濟數據卻令人擔憂,何時來一次大調整,真是天曉得。另一方面,禤中怡有一個古怪的推算,並不具有太大科學性,但還是可與讀者分享的,就是去年底恒指14,876點時,道指為10,717點,兩者相差4,159點,而上周五,兩者差距則達6,763點。明顯港股升勢比美股急勁,平心而論,過去半年,香港股市升勢並非完全由本港經濟或環球金融市場帶動,反而多間內地大型新股來港上市,如招商銀行(3968)及工行等,令大市情緒高漲卻是事實,而在一眾游資要為資金找出路時,港股被過分推高,已成為必然的副作用。說回環球金融老例「美股傷風 亞洲區股市地震」,若美國在明年開始要以減息振興經濟的話,那便說明了美國經濟前景若何,而恒指目前已出現比美股超前的情況,若美股下瀉,港股跌得更厲害亦是十分合理的。

(五)窩輪對股市的影響─窩輪對現今股市的影響,可能還未有專家可以估算得到,一間上市公司,可以變出多少種窩輪呢?而購入窩輪的小投資者們,他們的投資心態與只持正股的投資者又有何分別呢?明顯地窩輪的對沖作用可能只適用於部分投資者,反過來以小博大者亦絕對不少,如數間巨型上市公司當有甚麼風吹草動,購入窩輪的小股民或投資者定必首當其衝,而投資氣氛如何也不言而喻吧!而且在過去多次股災,窩輪市場都未如今天般興盛暢旺,故此,窩輪在股市下挫時所造成的負面影響,暫時仍難以預計清楚。

(11月6日刊於《am730》)

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