Thursday, November 02, 2006

紐約證交所吼實大中華

近年紐約證交所頻頻有動作,先收購泛歐交易所(Euronext),之後又收回與美國證交所合作的電子交易技術項目,現在又計劃與東京證交所結盟,希望成為全球少數做到24小時交易的交易所集團。

紐約證交所與東京證交所合作非常正路,因為戰後東京證交所事事仿效紐約證交所,連日經平均指數(Nikkei Dow Jones 225 Average Index)的計算方法,亦都是跟隨道指(Dow Jones Average Index)的一套,採用價格加權法(Price-weighted)。價格加權法雖然較落後,被人猛烈批評,但東京和紐約兩大交易所都沒有計劃放棄歷史悠久的計法,所以兩個交易所怎不會無合作空間?不過,紐約證交所想進入中國市場,那裡找得到合作夥伴就真係連禤中怡都想不出有何合適人選。

紐約證交所在中國開新交易所,中國有關當局未必願意「開綠燈」。而上海和深圳交易所,為了與香港競爭,有可能選擇同紐約證交所合作,問題在於上海和深圳交易所之所以「養唔大」,並非唔夠公司,而是中國法制太唔健全,不單是外資公司,連本地資本都不願意大舉入市。大家留意內地股民對工商銀行(1398)A股的反應,都略知一二。紐約證交所一旦同中國兩個交易所合作,如果無被中國兩個交易所拖累,已算夠運。

目前大中華地區,只有三個交易所可以成為紐約證交所合作對象,分別是香港、台北及新加坡,但新加坡似乎服侍印度客,可能好過中國。即是說,餘下的是台北和香港,誰有興趣合作。

不過,為了爭取中國大企業上市,港交所(388)似是紐約證交所的對手多過盟友。反而港交所同納斯達克曾有合作,而納斯達克現時有入股的倫敦證交所,更是港交所多年合作夥伴,香港不少大藍籌均在倫敦作第二上市。紐約證交所要入中國,除了收購港交所之外有無其他捷徑,仍是一個謎。但目前全球各大交易所均有興趣組成結盟,發展24小時交易,不知港交所有無興趣與倫敦證交所,以及納斯達克組成一個集團,屆時與紐約證券交易所分庭伉禮,會否更有前景。但可以肯定港交所仍未有任何國際盟友入股,港交所股權應是各路人馬留意對象,可留意是否有人靜靜吸貨。

印度富豪不能不識
中國有富豪榜,印度也有,值得大家多加認識。當地《Business Standard》的《10億萬富豪俱樂部》則公布短短1年間新增10名新成員,入選該榜的必須擁有淨財富逾10億盧比(約1.73億港元)。單看港元計算,要上榜似乎難度不大,香港動輒買幾個豪宅已夠數,但想想這是個發展中國家,且入榜人數從99年的99名,急升差不多2.9倍至391名,而過去1年累增財富達74%至6.33萬億盧比(約1.09億港元),增長速度不容小覷。那麼最富有的又是誰呢?Reliance Industries主席Mukesh Ambani,身家7,650.9億盧比(約1,326億港元),同樣藉油價向上而令這間石油和天然氣生產商和紡織的企業老闆身家水漲船高。至於排第二位的就是全球最大獨立調查和研究(R&D)服務機構Wipro主席Azim Premji。第三位富翁就是電訊設備生產商Bharti主席Sunil Bharti Mittal。

或許今日認識不深,但當大家知道富豪從軟件業等衍生出來,擴展至醫藥、鋼鐵、汽車等行業時,今年印度更有不少企業東征西討,在全球各地買鋼廠、收購其他製造商,有研究報告便估計該國出現資金淨流出局面,以一個渴求資金協助發展的國家,能夠有這種視野絕不能輕視,更可與中國媲美。

(11月2日刊於《am730》)

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