Monday, March 31, 2014

睇多兩季又驚過

繼周六一場遮天蔽日的黃雨後,昨晚更迎來黑雨,從電視畫面只見商場像打開天幕般,雨水傾倒而下,認真恐怖,希望不會打亂讀者們放假的心情。
股市也陷惡劣境況,今年首季轉眼過去,恒指上周五收報22,065點計,首季暫累跌5%,而國企股指數雖重越見10,001點,可惜接近3個月亦累積回落7.5%。藍籌股王騰訊(700)股價跌至535元,首季累增僅8.2%而已。
同投行朋友談起,佢慶幸2013年市場環境不俗,基本上投資大行花紅差不到那裡,更相信是金融海嘯以來最理想,故此大家都憧憬今年繼續衝!衝!衝!希望谷生意,本來1月表現亦的確不俗,特別是企業借貸融資環境延續去年走勢,難免有點興奮,豈知踏入2月中開始轉靜,情況更有惡化跡象。
禤中怡八卦,與人民幣匯價下跌有關嗎?他嘆道,有時也不知是因還是果,因為老外大行持續唱淡內地,並且好像四重唱般,似乎大家都對後市有所保留,引致資金流出也屬正常。不過,佢話,大行認為,人幣大幅貶值機會不會太大。
望望Dealogic,首十大投行所處理的離岸人民幣相關貸款融資總額82.23億美元(約641億港元),經已相等於去年全年的67%,意味今年有機會較去年有顯著增長,只是未知人幣匯價回落究竟對今年餘下時間影響有多大。
至於具投資級別(Investment Grade)的企業融資方面,十大投行不計日本市場,亞洲區共處理108.8億美元(約848億港元),只相等於去年的696.6億美元(約5,433億港元)的15.6%而已,投行朋友亦話,當然,去年市道好景,發債情況又破紀錄,但即使難再創高峰,也不想生意回落得太快,只是恐怕在餘下時間要急起直追了。
他又話,今日投行生態已不再像以往般睇多幾季,頭頭只要多看兩季時間,萬一生意不幸持續走低,在抽屜內那份裁減人手名單又會再拿出來。
不過,佢話富二代始終有江湖地位,早年在一間環球銀行打工,見到uncle及auntie的仔女進駐,即使市道疲弱,該富二代整隊團隊成員差不多全部搬紙皮箱,該富二代地位依然穩固。
八卦後才知,他的爸爸是內地銀行老總級人馬,而那位富二代一單生意便足以養起整個團隊,所以投行對富二代不會拒諸門外。
投行朋友話,其實也不能因此便歧視內地人,畢竟見識過不少本地富豪第二代憑藉父母在私人銀行開設戶口的關係,成功獲加入投行的培訓機會,只是互利而已。禤中怡聽完只能苦笑。

(3月31日刊於《am730》)

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