Monday, March 10, 2014

波動市害新股煞停?

馬來西亞航空一架飛往北京的航機失蹤,禤中怡祝願機上乘客和機員平安,又盼其家屬盡快了解真相。諷刺的是,經歷兩天,以今日科技之進步,又衛星、又導航,可惜連該航機情況如何也無法確定,可知人類之渺小,亦難怪家屬懊惱。
新股也有令人難解的景況。上周五一口氣兩隻新股齊臨門煞掣,包括由摩根大通及渣打做保薦人的新豐泰集團(1771)及由中金香港證券和中國銀河兼瑞信領軍的瀚華金控(3903),前者在內地賣豪華車,後者則經營向中小企貸款。
兩間公司均歸咎市況波動,不再繼續進行招股活動,顯然無論是中西金融機構也似乎不敵市場。但恒指於過去一個月上下波幅其實僅千餘點而已。
有趣的是,在內地從事主題公園及商業開發的海昌控股(2255)未聞叫停,或許招股價只能以中間位定價,依然有望於本周四掛牌,那麼是不是該集團保薦人法巴加美銀美林齊心合力,支持到底?至於內房陽光100(2608)也未見放棄,聯合保薦人中金香港和花旗也可能要力頂。
新股掛牌走樣或許影響氣氛,但新股保利文化(3636)上市兩日,上周五收報40.5元,較招股價33元仍有22.7%的進帳,理應吸引投資者追捧,希望在這股新股趨勢中獲利,但今次浪潮轉靜之快,實在難以想像。
中金香港證券分別做瀚華金控和陽光100的保薦人,但結果卻迥異,究竟是與公司行業背景影響,或是真的是市況波動有關?
談到保薦人,按過去兩年粗略估計,仍以國泰君安負責12隻IPO(新股發行)領先,其中10隻於掛牌首日報升,獲利率逾八成,至於做了11隻而排第二的,便有摩根士丹利(大摩)、中銀國際和海通國際,前兩間有7間為認購新股的投資者於上市第一日提供利潤,獲利率只有63.6%,而海通則略多一間至8間,助股東有斬獲,獲利率即時增至逾72%。
美林和高盛各自分別協助8間公司上市,表現卻大不同,前者有5間於首日賺錢,佔62.5%,而美資大行的高盛則僅有3間而已,獲利比例只有37.5%。
當然,純粹看保薦人而入市認購新股,不一定有賺,長線一點看,由中金香港證券及中銀國際亞洲做保薦人的伊泰煤炭(3948)於2012年7月上市至今,股價足足累挫了77%,場面認真恐怖。
題外話,上周談到《彭博商業周刊》香港版由單周變雙周後,該雜誌證實將改為以雙周刊形式出版,同時將於4月起,亦以雙周刊形式登陸台灣市場,即中港台三地同以雙周刊形式出版,但香港每本28元的售價相信會維持不變。

(3月10日刊於《am730》)

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