Monday, May 20, 2013

未開波已散場

內地自由行可謂無處不在,近日多間日資、港資百貨公司齊齊大減價,內地旅客早已聞風而至,比黃金周的墟冚場面不遑多讓,朋友更話,連自己也忽略了大減價,料不到內地旅客收風如此厲害。

商界朋友話,未知是否受「限奶令」影響,內地「配合」香港政策,來自深圳的朋友近日持「一年多簽」證件往續期時,竟然改獲發「3個月2次簽證」,即時面有難色,皆因這位內地人士經商多時,若果往來香港與內地受限制,多少影響其來港消費等。

商界朋友更憂慮,如果有關政策適用於深圳居民,變相大量減少自由行來港數目,零售股豈非遭殃?究竟是某些旅客訪港設限,或是成為一種趨勢,看看未來旅客量便知,或許靠其他省市的旅客可抵銷部分影響吧。

不過,香港商品交易所(HKMEx)放棄由證監會批出的自動化交易服務(ATS)供應商資格後,港商交所將不再接受新的交易 ,今日做結算,可能等不到內地市場帶來的好處了。

望望上周四交易紀錄,該所黃金期貨合約成交才795張,持倉量只有171張,而白銀期貨合約更慘淡,成交僅144張,持倉量只有10張而已,反映成交淡靜。

再看看一個月表現,4月黃金期貨合約成交量亦不過是1.28萬張,比去年同期大瀉85%,而今年首4個月成交量逾13.5萬張,亦挫70%。至於其白銀期貨合約於上月共有5,323張成交,足足跌了73%,而首4個月更少了九成,只有9,122張成交。

簡單計,兩種產品市場徵費和交收費每手單邊1.75美元(約13.65港元),即4月黃金期貨合約成交買賣兩邊合共費用才近35萬元,而白銀期貨合約亦只有逾14萬元而已,相信要達致營運收支平衡實在有難度。

屬於該所會員的金融界朋友談起,其實經該所成交的合約不多,多少帶點「俾面派對」,況且如倫敦金等更具流動性,兼簡單易用,客戶自有主見。他又認為,一間交易所如欠缺歷史,資本亦非雄厚的話,多少較不利。

未知持有該所10%股權的中國工商銀行(亞洲)需否撇帳。至於最無奈的,肯定是於上周三才搭上尾班車的灝天環球投資、中國邁科期貨國際及弘蘇期貨(香港),皆因他們齊高調宣布,加入該所做經紀會員,幫手增加該所會員總數至43家,可惜未開波便散場。

(5月20日刊於《am730》)

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