Wednesday, April 10, 2013

有錢未必使


內地受H7N9禽流感恐慌困擾,禤中怡與經常往返內地的上市公司人事部頭頭談起,他話自己也少吃雞,公司甚至發出通告,提醒廠房員工盡量少吃雞,以往一直有供應兼受歡迎的滷水雞蛋和雞翼銷情麻麻,朋友話雖然疫情遠在華東,但身處廣東省的他依然小心翼翼。

那麼膳食菜單豈非缺少了雞肉?他話問題非太嚴重,只需選配菜、豆腐和豬牛肉等便可。若人人轉買豬牛,肉類製品股理應屬受惠了。且看國家統計局披露3月豬肉價格比去年同期下降5.5%,而與2月比較則更挫9.1%,難怪通脹走低,但如果疫情持續,大家續搶購豬肉而棄雞肉,恐防再推高豬肉價,變相令通脹回升。

另一邊的日本央行行長黑田東彥努力卻不易擺脫通縮,為了要實現在兩年達到2%的通脹目標,不惜把所持日本國債餘額及流通的貨幣總量增加達一倍。目的明顯,就是藉此壓低長期利率,鼓勵企業和個人消費者借貸,以加大投資和消費。

這招學大佬美國的貨幣政策能否奏效尚待觀察,但上周五各大日本報章均以此為頭條,而隨後續以「円安」為題,即日圓匯價持續貶值的意思。由於當時身處日本,朋友即通知,日圓匯價大幅回落,實在是哭笑不得,若果以信用卡簽帳,理應可即時享受匯率下調的好處,但望著那些現金,又有蝕了點的感覺。

其實,政府鼓勵消費及投資,奈何怎樣啟動「經濟周期」這部大型機器著實有難度,要企業借貸嗎?據統計顯示,當地首100間大型企業截至去年3月底止,所持內部儲備和累計盈餘,竟高達99萬億日圓,即約7.7萬億港元,比09年,即美國雷曼兄弟破產事件發生後還多10%,證明他們並不缺錢,反而是他們情願保留現金儲備也不願意提高薪酬或加大投資,可見他們的危機感依然未改。

走在九州一些城市的主要商店街上,即使在主要大街,舖位空置情況令人憂慮,旁邊街道的店舖出租率之低更恐怖。除了本地人難支撐外,由於中日關係緊張,碰上內地旅客的機會不多,只見來自台灣及南韓的遊客,相信靠外匯對刺激消費作用亦有限。

正當投資海外的回報按日圓計,因圓匯轉弱而增加,加上日經平均指數節節向上,當地投資講座也增多,而散戶零售投資者佔當地股市比重,由去年10月的20%增至近期的30%,可見大家擔心利息下調而影響回報,轉而把資金投向股市,但真的能轉化為刺激消費嗎?靠輸入石油和天然氣的日本將面對日圓貶值而令價格向上的輸入通脹,但如企業無法創造產品以賺取外匯,無疑是引火自焚,唯一著數可能是遊日本更便宜,可惜買的盡是內地製貨物了。

(4月10日刊於《am730》)

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