Wednesday, September 26, 2012

你縮我谷


港交所(388)為奪倫敦金屬交易所(LME),終決定申請發CB(可換股債券),實行進可攻、退可守,換股價訂於每股160元,溢價逾三成,他日換股時,現有股東權益不會大幅攤薄,況且市場對這些收息產品需求大,且看年息0.5厘都認購,兼且CB發行額能加碼便知,只是大股東之一的特區政府會否想買一份捧場,收息之餘,隨時換股免讓股權下降也。

望望Dealogic,債券市場(Debt capital markets,DCM)相對暢旺,無他,歐美各地將息口推得低無可低,企業借錢勝過印公仔紙,故不計日本,亞洲DCM今年以來已籌集377億美元(約2,940億港元) ,差不多比去年同期翻一番,其中獅子銀行續做領頭羊,佔13.6%的市場佔有率,亞軍的摩根大通也有雙位數的10.1%。

股本市場(Equity capital markets)只算中規中矩,同樣在亞洲,龍湖地產(960)批盪的30.8億元,已是今年區內地產股第四大集資額,可見市場暢旺程度。雖然還有數天第三季才結束,但今年累積股本集資額比去年同期跌16%,至1,079億美元(約8,416億港元),寄望第四季衝刺成功。

不過,對日資投行和證券商來說,似乎仍處削肉階段,還未回氣過來,且看野村(NOMURA)一聲話未來兩年大減10億美元(約78億港元)成本,當中人力開支佔45%之際,已燒向亞洲業務,《Financeasia》話該行負責做債的資深賓架Mark Leahy將離職,據佢講,借錢的人好像多了,可惜收費卻相對較低,皆因發債體屬投資級別,即還款能力較強,自然吸引資金,賓架只能搶飯吃。

此外,大和(Daiwa)也話要縮減香港業務,未知是否與其於2014年下調600億日圓(約60億港元)成本有關,希望香港的員工能夠盡快覓得新工。

由於中日關係緊張,究竟內地大水喉是否也不射向日資機構,而令他們更陷困境?在中資背景金融公司打工的資深證券界朋友話,來香港搵食,無非看北面,希望能泊內地這個碼頭,但同時亦可能幫自己國家的資金謀出路,只可惜現在他們恐怕只能鞏固自己陣地了。

這位證券界朋友強調,股市的「餅」或許縮了,卻並非全行表現都要收縮,相反,只要想辦法突圍,也可能優於對手。

佢話公司也作擴張,但並非無限增加人手,而是提升資源效益,例如除加強企業融資(Corporate Finance)外,老闆亦早著先機,之前已前往美國考察,決定進一步造大美股生意,公司亦成功幫客戶調錢買美股,實行分散資產投資,而今日高位自然沽貨套利,轉戰仍處低位的港股,讓客戶份投資持盈保泰,可見獲客戶信任才是生意長做長有的不二法門。

(9月26日刊於《am730》)

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