Wednesday, December 07, 2011

券商投行趕搵水

旺角花園街排檔大火,傷亡慘重,禤中怡為災民禱告,希望他們盡快恢復正常生活,而死者得安息。

真的,單是過簡單的正常生活在今天也不易,且看滙豐控股(005)在臨近年尾無論在香港及海外派大信封,便知道生活有多艱難,以往入銀行打工等於前途無限好的日子已過去了。

做證券業亦似乎談不上是優差,儘管仍在辦公室工作,可惜成交額未見突出,主板首9個月日均成交額才729億元,而昨日更只有473億元,扣除衍生工具已佔成交額的40.7%,即逾192億元,股份只餘281億元交投,經紀肯定無啖好食。

同證券界朋友談起,原來繼早前夥拍移民公司,為投資移民來港解決入市的安排後,還打算開拓新業務,就是買賣債券也。

朋友解釋,投資者無法藉買磚頭來港移民後,不能將所有投資放入股市,持有一籃子股份,特別是面對近期波動市況,想有回報已難,遑論講保值,故債券成為他們的另一新投資途徑。

朋友已部署於明年提供有關債券買賣服務,但無意增添人手,只能用現有證券部門的同事負責多一瓣業務,變相做增值,希望藉此找多些收入來源。

當然,近期市況略好轉,投行馬上蜂擁推新股上市集資,也期望趕上尾班車,幫投行賺多點佣金收入。計計已招股、上市兼快見人的,共有逾14隻之多,畢竟12月一過,盤數又要重新計過也。不過,新股群湧,是否所有都值得參與呢?

有些仍然新鮮的上市公司表現的確嚇怕人,像9月29日才上市的專業旅運(1235),9月底中期純利已挫20%,得1,203萬元,當然歸咎成本上升等等。該股昨收報0.445元,較招股定價0.63元仍潛水29.3%,相當慘烈。

至於以OTO品牌賣保健產品的豪特保健(6880)也招股,按2012年3月底預測,全年盈利逾5,080萬元計,的確比2011年度升36%,但實際比2010年度的6,913萬元仍倒退26%,而最神奇的是,2012年度首五個月純利只有1,144萬元,卻能在餘下7個月間賺近4,000萬元,以符合招股預測,果然厲害。

或許管理層可解畫,有季節性因素和新產品推出所致,總之上市預測市盈率最高才10倍,比另一對手OSIM的歷史市盈率15倍低就是了。

市場一窩蜂推新股,而近期部分掛牌新股又成功浮上水面,的確帶來無限憧憬,希望分杯羹,但切記望清楚業務和前景,禤中怡也祝願一年將過時,大家賺個尾彩。

(12月7日刊於《am730》)

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