Thursday, December 01, 2011

葡萄酒指數升浪斷纜

今年投資要錄正回報已經不易,何況要跑贏通脹,恒指在過去一周兜了一個圈,再度企在18,000點之上,可惜逐步走低的結果,就是今年以來經已累跌4,779點,累積跌幅達20.7%,當中大笨象滙豐控股(005)自然成為拖累大市的主要藍籌股之一,以昨日股價收市報58.65元計,今年以來更累瀉達26.4%,可見其慘烈程度。

即使是國企股指數也不好過,以昨日收市報9,714點計,接近首11個月經已累計下降2,978點,蒸發了23.4%之多,炒中國概念的也中招。

有趣的是,美國經濟有幾差大家都知,但道瓊斯工業平均指數原來走勢並非想像般疲弱,以周一收市報11,523點計,今年至今竟然只是失去54點而已,跌幅才0.4%。如果用港元換美元炒美股,不用蝕匯價之餘,損失也可能不會那麼嚴重。

剛從美國回來的商界朋友話,當地經濟的確差,但洛杉磯豪宅區的樓價似乎還堅挺,皆因內地富豪湧入置業掃貨,有需求自然支持樓價造好,加上他們亦懂得佔據好位置的樓房,豪宅市道似乎未受影響。可惜朋友行色匆匆,未能詳細了解市況。

除了LV、豪宅是內地大款的獵物外,美酒也是收藏品之一,令紅酒市場持續造好,但反映紅酒價格指數的Liv-ex高級葡萄酒100指數(Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index)原來自08年金融海嘯後所引發的升浪,亦可能隨著由6月以來出現的連跌4個月而結束。

該指數變化主要按每月100種最受市場關注的葡萄酒價格變化釐定,自08年12月跌至206.81後,開始一個長達超過兩年的升勢,直至6月底衝上364.69新高,足足累積上升76%之多,表現交足功課有餘。不過,該指數終不敵大市氣候轉弱,10月單月挫4.5%,而今年首10個月亦共下滑8.4%,代表今年才入市的話,恐怕難逃一蝕。

另一個為Liv-ex高級葡萄酒投資指數,追蹤在葡萄酒投資組合中經常出現的葡萄酒品種。同樣在10月單月回落4.3%,表現同樣不濟。

這次跌浪維持多久實難預料,究竟是大升後調整,抑或是泡沫爆破仍有待留意,最重要是反映市場對持現金的需求,勝過持實物,若果同樣反映在其他投資工具的話,股市還有「水」流入嗎?

唯一肯定的是,是次連具投資價值的酒類產品也出現回落情況,價格有望下降,愛好杯中物的朋友定必要求禤中怡下次出門時,多替他買免稅酒,懶理升跌賺蝕,畢竟是送入肚,最重要是「抵飲」。

(11月30日刊於《am730》)

7 Comments:

At 1:24 PM, Blogger WineLover - Louis Leung said...

你的blog很精彩,我也是一名紅酒之友,身邊的朋友喜歡紅酒不多,希望可以跟你交流一下~做個朋友,我的blog如下
http://redwineworld.blogspot.com/

 
At 9:14 AM, Blogger oakleyses said...

air max, burberry outlet, true religion jeans, louboutin, louis vuitton outlet, louboutin, ray ban sunglasses, tiffany and co, coach outlet store online, oakley sunglasses cheap, christian louboutin shoes, longchamp outlet, louis vuitton, true religion jeans, tory burch outlet, kate spade outlet, kate spade handbags, oakley sunglasses, jordan shoes, polo ralph lauren outlet, louis vuitton outlet, louis vuitton handbags, coach outlet, prada outlet, ray ban sunglasses, chanel handbags, michael kors outlet, longchamp handbags, michael kors outlet, oakley sunglasses, nike shoes, air max, coach purses, michael kors outlet, longchamp handbags, louis vuitton outlet stores, nike free, prada handbags, coach factory outlet, gucci outlet, tiffany and co, louboutin outlet, michael kors outlet, polo ralph lauren outlet, michael kors outlet, burberry outlet, michael kors outlet

 
At 9:23 AM, Blogger oakleyses said...

marc jacobs, soccer shoes, abercrombie and fitch, hollister, asics running shoes, canada goose, ugg boots, nfl jerseys, reebok outlet, herve leger, ugg, north face outlet, mont blanc, longchamp, insanity workout, canada goose uk, chi flat iron, babyliss pro, ugg pas cher, ugg australia, canada goose jackets, mcm handbags, canada goose, wedding dresses, new balance shoes, mac cosmetics, soccer jerseys, celine handbags, birkin bag, p90x, ferragamo shoes, valentino shoes, nike huarache, beats by dre, ghd, instyler, jimmy choo outlet, lululemon outlet, bottega veneta, canada goose, rolex watches, canada goose outlet, vans shoes, nike roshe run, moncler, ugg boots, north face jackets, uggs outlet, giuseppe zanotti

 
At 9:36 AM, Blogger oakleyses said...

louboutin, moncler outlet, juicy couture outlet, iphone 6 cases, hollister, moncler, karen millen, oakley, baseball bats, wedding dresses, ray ban, gucci, canada goose, ralph lauren, canada goose, swarovski crystal, hollister clothing store, moncler, air max, converse, pandora jewelry, juicy couture outlet, rolex watches, moncler, supra shoes, moncler, pandora charms, ugg, vans, toms shoes, links of london, pandora charms, air max, timberland boots, parajumpers, hollister, thomas sabo, louis vuitton, montre homme, coach outlet store online, lancel, ugg, swarovski, moncler, converse shoes

 
At 11:56 AM, Blogger mmjiaxin said...

nike air huarache
moncler jackets
black friday 2015
ugg boots sale
north face jackets
true religion outlet
winter jackets
tiffany and co
ralph lauren polo
links of london jewellery
michael kors handbags
nfl jersey wholesale
michael kors handbags wholesale
instyler ionic styler
michael kors outlet online
michael kors uk
pandora outlet
michael kors outlet online
salomon shoes
hermes belt for sale
mm1130

 
At 3:05 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

canada goose clothing
ray ban pas cher
michael kors handbags
longchamp outlet
gucci outlet online
gucci outlet
louis vuitton outlet
christian louboutin
mcm bags
oakley sunglasses
201612.23wengdongdong

 
At 11:13 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

zzzzz2018.6.12
supreme clothing
vibram five fingers
true religion outlet
jordan shoes
mlb shop
oakley sunglasses wholesale
moncler jackets
pandora jewelry
pandora jewelry
louboutin shoes

 

Post a Comment

<< Home