Thursday, December 01, 2011

葡萄酒指數升浪斷纜

今年投資要錄正回報已經不易,何況要跑贏通脹,恒指在過去一周兜了一個圈,再度企在18,000點之上,可惜逐步走低的結果,就是今年以來經已累跌4,779點,累積跌幅達20.7%,當中大笨象滙豐控股(005)自然成為拖累大市的主要藍籌股之一,以昨日股價收市報58.65元計,今年以來更累瀉達26.4%,可見其慘烈程度。

即使是國企股指數也不好過,以昨日收市報9,714點計,接近首11個月經已累計下降2,978點,蒸發了23.4%之多,炒中國概念的也中招。

有趣的是,美國經濟有幾差大家都知,但道瓊斯工業平均指數原來走勢並非想像般疲弱,以周一收市報11,523點計,今年至今竟然只是失去54點而已,跌幅才0.4%。如果用港元換美元炒美股,不用蝕匯價之餘,損失也可能不會那麼嚴重。

剛從美國回來的商界朋友話,當地經濟的確差,但洛杉磯豪宅區的樓價似乎還堅挺,皆因內地富豪湧入置業掃貨,有需求自然支持樓價造好,加上他們亦懂得佔據好位置的樓房,豪宅市道似乎未受影響。可惜朋友行色匆匆,未能詳細了解市況。

除了LV、豪宅是內地大款的獵物外,美酒也是收藏品之一,令紅酒市場持續造好,但反映紅酒價格指數的Liv-ex高級葡萄酒100指數(Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index)原來自08年金融海嘯後所引發的升浪,亦可能隨著由6月以來出現的連跌4個月而結束。

該指數變化主要按每月100種最受市場關注的葡萄酒價格變化釐定,自08年12月跌至206.81後,開始一個長達超過兩年的升勢,直至6月底衝上364.69新高,足足累積上升76%之多,表現交足功課有餘。不過,該指數終不敵大市氣候轉弱,10月單月挫4.5%,而今年首10個月亦共下滑8.4%,代表今年才入市的話,恐怕難逃一蝕。

另一個為Liv-ex高級葡萄酒投資指數,追蹤在葡萄酒投資組合中經常出現的葡萄酒品種。同樣在10月單月回落4.3%,表現同樣不濟。

這次跌浪維持多久實難預料,究竟是大升後調整,抑或是泡沫爆破仍有待留意,最重要是反映市場對持現金的需求,勝過持實物,若果同樣反映在其他投資工具的話,股市還有「水」流入嗎?

唯一肯定的是,是次連具投資價值的酒類產品也出現回落情況,價格有望下降,愛好杯中物的朋友定必要求禤中怡下次出門時,多替他買免稅酒,懶理升跌賺蝕,畢竟是送入肚,最重要是「抵飲」。

(11月30日刊於《am730》)

7 Comments:

At 1:24 PM, Blogger WineLover - Louis Leung said...

你的blog很精彩,我也是一名紅酒之友,身邊的朋友喜歡紅酒不多,希望可以跟你交流一下~做個朋友,我的blog如下
http://redwineworld.blogspot.com/

 
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