Wednesday, November 17, 2010

向樂觀氣氛響警號

內地收緊銀根成為市場恐慌的藉口,除了加息外,還擔心陸續出招,令滬深股市即跌至人仰馬翻,港股也要跟隨於午後向下,推低內銀股、再加兩隻重磅股滙豐控股(005)和中國移動(941)已夠,恒指昨日跌334點,收報23,693點,已連跌3日,合共跌了1,007點,可見升得快,跌得也快。

大市畢竟累積一定升幅,淡友自然不放過這個機會,現貨月期指更收報23,595點,即較現貨低水98點,成交更逾10萬張合約,似乎即日鮮幫忙踩多腳。衍生工具市場亦持續熱鬧,儘管窩輪交投自上周五見逾211億元後,交投額已逐步回落,但昨日成交仍達176.8億元,佔大市總成交17.36%。

牛熊證市場更恐怖,已經連續6日的交投總額逾百億元,昨日便達109.5億元成交額,連同窩輪已合共佔大市交投的28.12%比重。由於回落急速,全日有多達67隻牛證慘遭打靶,當中恒指牛證便佔60隻。

其實,美國開動「印鈔機」後,歐洲債務危機又見惡化,令本來應該要貶值的美元反而出現回升情況,如美元兌日圓由81日圓,轉強至兌83日圓,而歐元兌美元當然也受愛爾蘭債務問題而回落,試問之前利用美元作為套息交易(Carry Trade),即借入或沽空美元去投資其他資產的投資者怎不快快出售資產套現,償還美元或平沽倉,因為美元反彈幅度確難測。

最近大家認為,新興市場資產價格必受惠美元轉弱而上升,形成一股看好的情緒,隨後這些地區的股市真的向上,究竟是羊群效應,齊心合力,還是聯儲局主席伯南克所送大禮呢?不過,當市場樂觀氣氛充斥時,大家就要小心了。

新股市場持續熱鬧,亦營造認購必賺的幻景,但終由理士國際(842)和泓淋科技(1087)所打破,首日股價各跌逾10%,特別是泓淋超額認購逾116倍,也選擇下限定價,昨日收市後,終明白真相,如上限定價,可能跌得………

其他新股恐怕要努力推介了,像中國現代牧業(1117)選擇此時招股,可能還失了一點優勢,因有「結石寶寶之父」之稱的趙連海,為三聚氰胺毒奶粉事件受害者家長,原本只為追討合理賠償,但竟反被內地重判入獄兩年半,人神共憤,話雖該集團在招股書內講明,並未涉及三聚氰胺毒奶粉事件,但在風險因素內已列明,擔心乳品行業的負面報道,會影響中國乳業形象,甚至可能影響其聲譽。

未知是否為紀念趙連海入獄,該集團招股書封面竟罕有地用黑色,在新股招股文件中,這個顏色也夠「現代」!

其實,趙連海入獄,可見中國這個崛起的國家要晉身成為大國,恐怕仍有一段頗長的距離,即使鐵路有多先進,可惜沒有法治,只能繼續掛着發展中國家的招牌吧!或許中央亦想繼續掛著「新興市場」這個幌子,讓資金樂於投入。

(於11月17日刊於《am730》)

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