Wednesday, February 13, 2008

天氣股市一樣冷

港股交投又縮,全日只有673億元,差不多只等於去年壯旺時的一半水平,比上周三,即年三十的半日市成交逾700億元還要少,扣除窩輪成交近242億元,正股成交額更只有431億元,難怪恒指怎升也不多,僅反彈305點,但早前已累挫3日,合共達2,415點,大市確實有點「陰乾」的感覺。


同證券界朋友談起,他就憂慮次按問題令銀行的資金流動性(liquidity)被削弱,意味坐盤的能力也受影響,加上基金要應付贖回潮,在缺乏資金支持下,試問怎會有向上的動力。


禤中怡聽聞有外資銀行,已要求香港的業務部門收緊廣告開支等,當然希望這只是部分銀行的決定,或許是總部有資金需要,減少海外業務的資金,調回總部救急所致。究竟這個情況會否蔓延,就要多加留意,但見到渣打(2888)旗下結構投資工具公司(SIV)泵水計劃告吹,皆因資產質素進一步惡化,資產淨值已跌了50%,就知道次按問題影響深遠程度,股價應聲跌2.4%。


見到這種場面,立刻想到滙豐控股(005)去年也攬下SIV公司,甚至放入資產負債表內,若果渣打的投資大縮水,滙控的那些的投資又能否避過一劫呢?證券界朋友更話,滙控存在減少派息以增加手頭資金的可能,況且股價已跌了不少,即使將派息金額減少,回報率由6厘降至4.5厘,依然有得交差。滙控昨日雖重上110元,報110.3元收市,升1元,但滙控如真的減少派息,那些股東戰士如美國Knight Vinke會否趁機再發難,甚至趕主席葛霖(Stephen Green)下台呢?


另一個缺乏成交的原因,可能與內地股市結束農曆新年假期後,今日才復市有關。問題是,內地上市公司早年進行股份改革,將法人股變為流通股,並設有禁售期,而部分內地上市公司的禁售期於今日起結束,反映流通股份進一步增加,對股市構成的壓力有多大,仍屬未知之數,最重要的是,這個不明朗因素,對香港上市的國企H股又會否受影響呢?


談到不明朗,去年6月初才掛牌的鞋股盈進集團(1386)就更是令人驚訝,因為集團創辦人,即主席兼行政總裁洪文藝於周日(10日)在港突然逝世。才44歲的他,正值成熟壯年之際,且業務剛踏上擴張之路,公司話洪氏因急性疾病而離開,確令人惋惜。


洪文藝的太太及董事陳美雙便臨危受命做集團主席,而另一執行董事喬維明則任行政總裁,公司更話有核心管理層,料對業務影響不大。且看股份今日復牌後,市場如何演繹這個消息。


(2月13日刊於《am730》)

9 Comments:

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Mr.禤
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但大陆是没法正常访问blogger.com。
您能否在大陆的blog网站开一个mirror site.(新浪blog,sohu blog之类的地方就可以)
这样大陆的朋友访问可以方便一点

 
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