Tuesday, September 05, 2006

風水輪流轉 DRAM大炒

雖然微軟應該會在明年推出新版Windows Vista,而Windows一出新版,大家都知要升級硬件迎戰。不過,如果你近日想同屋企部電腦加DRAM(電腦記憶體),禤中怡會勸你不如先將錢投資於DRAM工廠這類製造股,分分鐘你所賺的錢,足夠你之後買多好多DRAM。

其實,05年DRAM平均價格大跌約50%至55%,主要受低價電腦衝擊和欠新作業系統面世而令需求放緩有關。但所謂風水輪流轉,根據最新統計顯示,DRAM的庫存日數簡直是歷年新低,現在大廠的存貨最多夠支持兩日至四日,DRAM工廠本身都只可足夠應付六日至八日。通常出現這種情況,過往只在DRAM工廠發生大火之類才出現,目前是聖誕同感恩節訂單差不多要出貨的季節,看來DRAM的價值「有排升都似」。

為甚麼會出現這種情況呢?因為今次短缺情況非DRAM工廠大火引發,而是不少半導體公司,寧願做更值錢的NAND FLASH(應用於數碼相機、手機的記憶卡類別),而有些工廠更換製造方法後,成功率又不如理想,本來已經令產量跌了不少。更加重要的是,適逢這段時間又臨近聖誕旺季,而Windows Vista以及Mac OS X 10.5又肯定會在明年推出,個個都打算要同部電腦加DRAM,結果當然是DRAM工廠的存貨大減,而DRAM廠商之間的期貨市場已經炒到熱烘烘。如果台灣一早解決DRAM期貨的技術問題,估計成班炒家一早飛撲入市。

而DRAM工廠的經營模式同油公司一樣,無論缺貨與否,生產成本都不會變,故DRAM價一直升,利潤一樣照升可也。製造DRAM的大廠,例如韓國三星、Hynix固然受益,德國西門子半導體部門分拆出來的Infineon AG,已再將DRAM的部門拆出來做Qimonda AG,在8月初於美國IPO,每股13美金,低於預先預期的16美金。目前DRAM出現這種升勢,好明顯買入Qimonda 股份的朋友已執到平貨,難怪Infineon取消賣舊股計劃。市況不好固然是原因,但Infineon的管理層在半導體界很有經驗,他們應該計到分分鐘在年底DRAM價高企時,再拋售Qimonda股票更著數這個道理。

人民幣本月會否與港元同價
港股連升數天,禤中怡發現原因除期指挾倉盤外,人民幣升值速度亦是近期最快。人民幣昨天升穿7.95兌一美元,尾市再創改革匯率機制以來新高,收報7.9385兌一美元,較上周五收市升值1.47分。若每天以相同速度上升,相信月內可升破7.8水平,成為全港的頭條新聞,因為港幣是近廿年以來首次較人仔「便宜」,禤中怡會聯想起香港人「轉數」快的性格,返大陸購物時,立即全數用港元支付,而中港貿易的成本亦會上漲,可能會出現一陣亂子與笑話。

基金朋友話美國財政部長保爾森下周訪華,內地想給他一個見面禮,故將人民幣升值加快,以目前的經濟狀況來說,人民幣升值1%至2%仍可應付得來。對於加快升值步伐,其實本港任總早已收到料,在其專欄「觀點」中指,「7.8元人民幣兌1美元」這個匯率水平只是繼「八算」後另一心理關口,遲早會衝破,並承認市民可能有港元貶值的感覺。當市民兌換100元港幣可能少於100元人民幣時,或會不太適應。昨天升市確認有大量資金流進本港,料為認購招行(3968)與工行外,更為炒作人民幣升值而來,料9月股市會翻天覆地。香港人,請做足準備吧!
(9月5日刊於《am730》)

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