Wednesday, August 23, 2006

美國封殺網上賭場

在香港,若在網上賭場落注,大家都知是犯法。香港唯一一個合法的網上莊家,是一個叫香港賽馬會的慈善團體。不過,如果走去買網上賭場的股票,那以一個堂堂正正投資者的身份,來坐享網上賭場莊家的收益,又算唔算是一場賭局?如果閣下真的投資網上賭場,那就大有可能已經捲入另一場合法賭局,而且風險並不比葡京的賭盤為細。在倫敦證券交易所上市的BetOnSports(網址為www.betonsports.com),突然宣布停止收受來自全美國各地的賭注,因為美國司法部正調查BetOnSports是否涉及違反The Wire Act 1961,該條法例規定不准收受經過電訊網絡的投注,成為禁止在美國境內進行網上體育博彩的法律依據,而BetOnSports的前總裁卡拉瑟斯(David Carruthers)更在上月17日於美國轉機期間被捕。之後同類型公司股份,在倫敦交易所都跌10%左右,直至最近這類網上賭場頻頻傳出好業績消息,股價才有些少起色。不過,目前很多手上買了不少網上賭場股票的芬佬,對是否繼續保住手上的股票還是心大心細、「十五十六」,因為若現時繼續持有該批貨,就仍可以享受這些公司在與美國政府打官司期間,相對強勁的現金收益(因股價低殘而令股息比例有可能上升),雖然期間可能受美國業務的負面因素影響,但管理層自知處境如何,故派息應該不會太差。不過,如果美國政府真的成功起訴BetOnSports,那就是一件大事,除了有公司要員要坐監,更可能要支付天文數字的堂費,以及同樣是天文數字的罰款,相信那時股價必會如食瀉藥般下挫。雖然不少網上賭博網站於海外註冊,但再想藉此賺美國人錢,可能已觸犯法例,網站負責人抵美時分分鐘被拘捕。更加有趣的是,一向認為越亂越有機的對沖基金已入場興風作浪,又沽空又買貨,總之古靈精怪招數天天新款,日日不同,手頭上持有網上賭場股票的朋友,你話現時是不是如同在澳門葡京賭場,同賭王士丹利何對賭無分別?所以港人不能在網上賭場落注,其實一點也不要緊,即使不「過大海」一樣可以對住個Mon(電腦熒幕),在英國倫敦證交所「賭餐飽」,不過有甚麼冬瓜豆腐,三長兩短就閣下自理。
航運業開始見底?昨天多隻航運業相關股份公布業績,例如中海發展(1138)、太平洋航運(2343)與勝獅貨櫃(716)齊齊派成績表,這些公司的盈利分別倒退約兩成至六成不等,可謂榮辱互見。其中以生產貨櫃和經營貨櫃場為主的勝獅昨天公布中期純利大跌61%,派息金額亦少逾半,自然遭基金拋售,股價曾低見4.17元,全日仍大跌15%,收報4.25元,但似乎股價仍未見底。此外,太平洋航運管理層更說出了事實,中期純利大幅倒退三成,主要因為今年首季乾散貨運市場處於3年以來最疲弱的季度,讀者可從波羅的海乾貨指數(BDI)中看出,今年1月至4月,該指數只在2,000至2,500點的低位幅度徘徊,而該指數已於6月突破2,500點阻力,到8月時已升至最高3,800點,升幅約高達52%,即代表航運需求增加,暗示下半年航運股的盈利會有保障。此外,目前造船業全面復甦,訂單上升,例如廣州廣船(317)承接的造船訂單已到09年,反映未來航運的需求上升。若今天3隻航運股再跌,可能是一個撈底時機。
(8月23日刊於《am730》)

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