Thursday, August 10, 2006

Uniqlo擴張下的贏家

近日,主力於日本經營便服零售店Uniqlo的日本公司Fast Retailing表示對佐丹奴(709)感興趣,並曾洽談收購。根據Uniqlo網站披露,Uniqlo在日本擁有720家零售店,中國及香港分別設有7家及1家,韓國、英國及美國分別設有10家、8家及3家店舖。

至於被垂青的收購對象佐丹奴則在大中華地區及東南亞擁有強大網絡,擁有1,700間店舖,包括內地706家,香港、新加坡及台灣分別有101家、48家及237家。作為進入國內市場的一條捷徑,佐丹奴由於無主要大股東(首兩大投資基金Aberdeen及Harris Associates各持14%股權),吸引力(成事率)自然較其他本地同業高。Fast Retailing近年急於在日本及海外尋求增長,相信將持續進行併購,該公司管理層曾表示,計劃斥資26至35億美元(約202億至273億港元)進行併購,冀2010年前銷售能翻一番或年銷售增長率達21%。

佐丹奴的併購故事成事與否,現階段言之尚早,但市場上另一與Uniqlo有直接生意關係的上市公司就是申洲國際(2313)。於去年11月上市的半新股申洲國際,剛公布截至06年6月30日止之中期業績,業績表現勝過預期。主要業務增長強勁,銷售額按年升28.5%至13.9億元(人民幣,下同)。經營利潤增長24.1%至2.15億元,純利增加30.2%至1.9億元。主要客戶Uniqlo佔其總銷售額的60%。

申洲國際主攻高端紡織服裝市場,以營業額計,集團在中國的針織服裝市場排名前列。作為上市的紡織、成衣公司之一,申洲國際的特點是對中國和西方國家之間的任何紡織品貿易糾紛具有較高免疫力,這是由於日本為其主要市場,而該國沒有紡織品進口配額限制。日本市場的銷售額目前佔集團總銷售額77.6%,歐洲則佔11.5%。受惠日本經濟復甦,以及Uniqlo業務的迅速擴張,日本的銷售額上升17.2%至10.8億元。

另一令銷售額錄得28.5%增長之原因,是來自Nike、Adidas及Puma之運動服訂單明顯增加。運動服銷售額強勁增長150%至1.83億元,佔總銷售額的13.2%(05年為9%)。由於08年奧運熱潮的來臨,管理層預計運動服業務可持續以強勁的速度增長。運動服業務的發展具有兩種寓意。首先,這或是其利潤率增長的驅動力(運動服裝的毛利率約為30%,相較休閒服裝為20%)。其次,這可能有助於逐步減少對日本市場的依賴。

申洲國際的業務正處擴張期,毛利率因而較去年同期下跌1.6個百分點至22.4%。主要因為增聘新員工(目前,員工總數為2.7萬名,較6個月前增18%),令效率仍處於提升階段,致使單位人工成本增加。以歐洲及美國作為銷售目標的柬埔寨廠房於去年9月投產。國內廠房亦持續擴張。去年首次公開招股中錄得的8.6億元收益,將主要用作新設備的投入。管理層預計今年全年資本性開支逾4億元,07年資本開支將為3億元。這或可視為管理層預計未來營業額的增長速度極快,需要持續提升產能以應付需求之餘,同時亦有助增強規模經濟的效益。儘管前景亮麗,市場基於申洲國際對Uniqlo的嚴重依賴及弱美元可能造成匯兌損失,或會給與估值折讓。目前股價處於06年預期市盈率10倍,以紡織股計,屬合理水平,但未來絕對可以跑贏同業。


(8月10日刊於《am730》)

23 Comments:

At 10:14 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

謝謝你的分析,從你的文章發掘出很多公司方面的資訊。

 
At 1:18 PM, Blogger W Prince said...

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At 1:23 PM, Blogger W Prince said...

這資料十分有用,不知其他成衣零售股有沒有機會被收購呢? 謝。

 
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