Tuesday, December 19, 2006

紅酒跑贏大市

今年若果將銀行存款拿出來投資的話,相信可享受雞犬皆升的理想回報,從股市、貴金屬、商品,甚至外匯都應該有點斬獲,但除了熱門投資產品外,原來有些品味產品亦似受財富效應滾存的作用而攀升。

據一個衡量頂級質素佳釀的指數Liv-ex 100的加權平均計算,酒價自今年1月初至11月底,已錄得約45.7%的增幅,絕對可與傳統投資工具如股票、債券,甚至對沖基金等表現媲美,回報一點也不遜色。

這個指數其實是London International Vintners Exchange(倫敦國際葡萄酒交易所)所編製,主要由5種酒類產品所組成,其中波爾多葡萄酒(Bordeaux)佔指數比重的91.7%,而香檳則佔4%,Burgundy(布根地葡萄酒)佔2.6%,具一定指標作用。為甚麼能夠有如此表現,其實除了傳統發達國家經濟增長帶來財富不斷增長外,新興國家如俄羅斯、印度和中國這些市場經濟膨脹自然造就一批新需求者。當然專業投資者和專門投資酒品基金的加入,自然為價格推波助瀾。若以個別紅酒表現來看就更是不得了。例如一支98年的Lafite,以一箱計,已由1月的1,240英鎊(約18.8萬港元),攀上2,370英鎊(約35.9萬港元),足足升了91%之多!分分鐘比投資藍籌股還佳。如果財力不夠,又或者純粹嗜好杯中物,不妨買一兩支傍身,因為每支價格亦已升至198英鎊(約3,004港元),也有92%增幅,唔飲都有賺,難怪經歷亞洲金融風暴後,酒價終於守得雲開見月明,以回報計可能更是過去10年來最佳。至於明年市道又如何?專家當然看好,有些進取的更預測明年4月前仍再升6%,原因莫過於經濟續好,大家人工水漲船高,而海外需求持續不斷,試問供應有限的情況下,怎不炒個不亦樂乎?至於香港投資者可以怎樣入市?禤中怡並非此道專家,估計除了買實物等升值(注意,也有可能跌價,絕對要注意風險)外,海外也有些專投資紅酒的基金供認購,據聞英國已有3個類似基金,規模更達5,000萬英鎊(約7.5億港元) 。

校園手作仔變金傳奇-無名小站
雖然雅虎中國管理層在Web 2.0發展上意見分歧,最後高層換到像走馬燈般。不過,雅虎在台灣的分公司雅虎奇摩就大舉進入Web 2.0領域。最近,雅虎奇摩收購台灣Web 2.0的霸主無名小站,其品牌、戶口等全部保留,暫不會同雅虎奇摩合併。究竟無名小站是甚麼傢伙?

無名小站本來是台灣交通大學裡面的一個BBS,是一群大學生「柴娃娃玩下」。台灣青年人一般鍾意在BBS同人吹水,傾閒偈,甚至藍綠罵戰。不過無名小站加多樣功能,就是提供個人相簿這類增值功能,這些本來只是學生哥手作仔。但結果好多人走上去玩,會員人數多到連台灣非牟利的學術網絡都難以負荷,最後迫住商業化,成為一間私營公司。

之後,無名小站又增加博客功能。由於台灣好多年輕人都是無名小站的用戶,所以好多台灣人的博客亦都是由無名小站開始。正因在青年人中很普及,所以台灣六成博客都在無名小站。其他公司想進軍這項業務,除非收購無名小站,否則恐怕連入門機會都無。

事實上,在無名小站內,亦都有不少出名的博客,否則無名小站亦不會被外界估值成7億新台幣,大約成億幾港紙。好像很多人在MSN大頭愛用的麻糬人,查實來自在無名小站之彎彎的博客,而彎彎的博客內容已經出了三本書。而陳水扁的前得力助手羅文嘉更是台灣政界唯一真是會寫博客的人。他在美國哈佛讀書時就透過博客炮轟陳水扁。單是彎彎的博客和羅文嘉這兩個人,都不知會在Web 2.0年代,帶來幾多無價人流。

(12月19日刊於《am730》)

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