Friday, December 08, 2006

聖誕鐘買不買滙豐?

一年將盡,又到計數時間,其中大笨象滙豐控股(005)表現尚算對辦,若果跟隨所謂「聖誕鐘買滙豐」的投資策略,計一計總有點斬獲。

以該股去年12月1日收市價124.9元計,若入市吸納,且不被中資金融股突出表現所引誘持有至今,以昨日收市價141.1元計,每股也有約13%帳面回報,每手400股有約6,480元帳面利潤。該股還有每季派股息,每股0.15美元(約1.17港元),若末期息與去年一樣,全年總股息為0.76美元(約5.928港元),每手股息總額有2,371元,股息回報率4.7%,比「紅簿仔」存款息好,難怪禤中怡的朋友被滙豐職員游說投資基金時,只講一句:「我一向只買滙豐股票」,令那位職員頓時無言以對,莫非倒自己公司米嗎?滙豐現市盈率13.34倍,相對花旗(CitiGroup)的10.93倍、美國銀行(Bank of America)的12.13倍和摩根大通(JP MORGAN CHASE CO)的13.26倍顯然有點高,幸好未致有太大距離。由於滙豐大班事先張揚壞消息如憂慮美國市場壞帳上升及營業額增長放緩等,令市場感到不安,齊齊作集體決定:沽之哉!由於中國概念已成為本地甚至國際銀行前景關鍵點,且看內地開放外資銀行經營辦法後,在內地發展多年的東亞(023)股價即升便知。滙豐採多頭馬車策略,除自行擴張外,亦入股交通銀行(3328)兼合作發展高利潤信用卡業務,變相不用投入大筆資本、也可用交行分行網絡,但增長強勁也需要一段投資期,不易即時反映。此外,滙豐的投資銀行業務認真麻麻,只見傳聞裁減投資銀行部員工便知大笨象的投資銀行生意要加把勁,始終未見成績。

不過,若不以環球性的大銀行作比較,改為用現時在香港熱炒的中資銀行股,那就全然又是另一回事了。以昨日收市價計,各中資銀行的市盈率如下:工商銀行(1398)為27.61倍、建設銀行(939)為17.92倍、交行為34.67倍、中國銀行(3988)為28.42倍、招商銀行(3968)為46.84倍。
至於仍以本地銀行為主要業務的銀行股,東亞(023)為22.76倍、永隆(096)為16.33倍、富邦(636)為17.48倍、恒生(011)為17.55倍。故此若論本地市場,滙豐的投資價值絕對不弱,值得研究的反而是為何一家管理質素上佳、擁有世界知名度的銀行,其股價現卻比本地市場的二三線銀行還不如呢?若以一個小投資者的角度而言,買滙豐是保值的不二法門,但對於賭性甚重的小股民來說,滙豐永遠不會是投機的重點選擇。禤中怡覺得,滙豐這頭大笨象,確實是欠缺了一些特色,故對股價表現有一定影響。在中國概念上,滙豐雖然與中國有着過百年的歷史淵源,但其在中國的主要業務發展,暫時只有上述提及的交通銀行及平安保險(2318),不過外間普遍認為,滙豐在這些投資上,只是扮演着一個資本及技術轉移的角色,以交行為例,雖然滙豐調任愛將葉迪奇任交行副行長,但銀行界並不會預期葉先生對交行的重要政策能夠起著關鍵性決策權的作用,反而其角色可能會偏重人才培訓、強化交行專業管理及拉近與國際管理水平。

換言之,滙豐實未能如中資銀行股般給予機構投資者一個大、大、大的中國夢罷了。另一方面,若論及本地零售銀行市場,滙豐的優勢也正逐漸減退,先說按揭市場,中銀(2388)過去便把滙豐打得落花流水,滙豐不再是按揭的永遠一哥,而上月滙豐突然帶頭息、有說是大銀行水浸問題嚴重、要排洪,但禤中怡反而相信這是滙豐向其他銀行還以顏色的一步棋。而更令禤中怡對這隻愛股擔心的,還有其經營策略上的方向性改變。過去大銀行能夠恃強的地方,就是分行網絡。在六、七十年代,正藉公共房屋大量興建時期,滙豐可算是公屋的恒常租客,久而久之,其客戶網便遠較中、小型銀行具有優勢。

但時移世易,面對美式成本管理概念抬頭,一切減省成本的招數也要用上,減省分行的骨牌效應是連人手也會即時減少,盤數靚晒(但這是初期現象)。不過,更直接的,是把大銀行與中、小型銀行的分野大大縮細。以消費者角度出發,順路、快捷、方便,過去都是大銀行的優勢,但現在於一些旺區,如旺角、銅鑼灣及尖沙咀等,滙豐分行數目多的優勢已不存在,以銅鑼灣為例,主要提供零售銀行服務的,只有銅鑼灣場二期的分行,而在軒尼斯道上的兩家滙豐好像只提供高檔的理財及ATM服務罷了。

聖誕臨近,滙豐是否真的非買不可,對禤中怡而言,就真是大難題了。

(12月8日刊於《am730》)

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