Thursday, December 07, 2006

搬碼頭看經濟轉變

香港最厲害的地方是甚麼?人多車多?東京、倫敦也是同一個情況。開估吧!就是「變」,變得不亦樂乎。禤中怡在中環遊歷,印象最深刻的必是天星碼頭,無論是尖沙咀還是中環都有個大鐘報時,而且乘搭天星小輪過海夠方便,據聞當年會德豐(020)前主席李唯仁也是乘小輪從集團的旗艦物業海港城往中區的總部會德豐大厦也,分分鐘方便過坐專車「捐」隧道,唯一美中不足的只是不能邊乘船邊抽啖雪茄。

可惜的也是那個「變」,禤中怡再踏足中環天星碼頭時,只見正方柱體的鐘樓已變成廢墟,只有抗議拆卸標語在飄揚,但竟發現一兩檔售報紙和雜誌的攤檔,檔主正收拾賣剩的報紙,突然有一種唏噓的感覺,因為市場的重心已轉移,這些報檔還可以生存下來嗎?所謂市場,就是碼頭平日熙來攘往的乘客,他們每日光顧的為數不少,奈何新碼頭啟用後,再經過舊碼頭的機會相對減少,何況新碼頭也有售賣相同產品的銷售點,還會因感情因素而老遠跑去繼續捧場?

從這個場面,不禁令人思索,在經濟轉移期間,大家是否已早作準備應付市場變化,待變化真正出現時,已抽身而退,另覓商機。像這些檔口處理賣剩的報紙量看,恐怕問題比想像中嚴重,究竟會改變戰略還是繼續守下去好呢?

另一個經典場面就是一兩架人力車醒目地從舊碼頭遷往新碼頭旁邊,在行色匆匆的小輪乘客眼中,可能以為是一堆廢鐵,即使貼上出售牌子也好像乏人問津似的。看到偶然有些外國人坐在人力車上,由老伯氣喘喘地拉動,不禁一嘆世事如棋,更嘆息經濟轉型之不際。為甚麼?皆因人力車這種交通工具的確敵不過私家車,但真正的賣點是懷舊,為何不轉型變成旅遊產品。

禤中怡曾往京都一遊,除了傳統的清水寺,也對附近的郊外熱點嵯峨野甚感熱愛,有山有水嘛!最特別的是,嵯峨野也有人力車,而且是遊客喜歡的項目之一。只見黑色車身的人力車,架架車輪銀光閃耀,乾淨非常,而拉車的並不是老人家,竟是年輕力壯的小伙子。或許會問,年輕人願意做這種職業嗎?的確簡單看是一種勞力輸出,但見人力車伕行走一會便轉身向旅客介紹名勝,就變成一種服務業,而且汽車不多,道路寬敞,部分更不容許汽車駛進,為這項服務建造營商環境,年紀大的也可坐人力車上山,一樂也,絕對非坐的士可媲美。

回頭再看舊碼頭,接近報廢的人力車,禤中怡不禁無限感慨,經濟轉型是否等於淘汰一切呢?

人民幣正在貶值?
人民幣對美元匯率連創新高之際,中國人民銀行所屬的內地《金融時報》日前刊登評論,指人民幣的真實有效匯率實際是不升反降,令人摸不著頭腦。該評論解釋,雖然人民幣兌美元確實正升值,兌港元和日圓也在升值,但兌歐元卻在貶值。今年1月4日人民幣對歐元匯率中間價是9.7091,直至本月5日已貶值到10.4414。文章認為看人民幣匯率應從「對美元匯率」轉向「對一籃子貨幣匯率」的角度去看。

因人民幣匯率參考一籃子貨幣包括美元、歐元、日圓、韓圜、新加坡元和英鎊等11種貨幣。若以此看,人民幣對一籃子貨幣匯率正貶值,如近期人民幣兌美元升值的同時,中國進口價格漲幅顯著超過出口價格漲幅,這種情況一般在貨幣貶值的情況下才會發生,你信不信?

(12月7日刊於《am730》)

11 Comments:

At 11:38 PM, Blogger 源仔 said...

禤先生:

看完你今天的文章,我有些事情想不通,如果人民幣兌其他貨幣正在貶著,為何還有那麼多資金湧入中國。於是去找你提及的那篇《金融時報》的文章。入面所提,人民幣對其他國家貨幣正在貶值,所指的是實質有效匯率,是把名義有效匯率按個別地區通脹來調整。因此雖然人民幣名義有效匯率升值,但因為中國較其他地區既通脹率為高,所以人民實質購買力才會下降。
因此,在計算投資所得時,我們只需要考慮名義有效匯率,即人民幣是升值,可以吸引資金流進中國。另在實質匯率貶值下,貿易差額也會改善,這是我們看到中國出口表現強勁的原因。

 
At 11:06 AM, Blogger 源仔 said...

禢先生:
不好意思,昨天深夜,不小心打錯野,現作出糾正。應該係中國地區較其他地區通脹為低,所以人民幣化成其他貨幣的時候,實質購買力才下降,即實質有效匯率貶值。
這也和進口價格漲幅大於出口價格漲幅吻合。

 
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